Jiménez-Ruiz Edwin, González-Narváez Mariela, Puente-Tenezaca Víctor, Nuñez-Burgos Óscar, Fonseca-González William, Ordóñez Carlos
Facultad de Ciencias de la Vida, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Campus Gustavo Galindo, Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, Guayaquil, 090902, Ecuador.
Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas, Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Campus Gustavo Galindo, Km. 30.5 Vía Perimetral, Guayaquil, 090902, Ecuador.
Sci Rep. 2025 May 15;15(1):16919. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-01446-9.
Global warming, produced by the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is causing alterations in the life cycle of flora and fauna species and consequently threatening food security. The objective of this research was to study the relationship between climatic variables and the incidence and presence of Perkinsiella saccharicida populations, a sucking insect considered a pest, that attacks sugarcane crops depending on the climatic season. This study was carried out in sugarcane plantations of Ingenio San Carlos, located in Marcelino Maridueña, Ecuador. We analyzed climatic data and Perkinsiella population records from 2006 to 2023, applying various parametric (KS, ANOVA, Bartlett, Dickey-Fuller) and non-parametric (Spearman, Shapiro, Kruskall-Wallis, Levene) statistical tests, along with CCF and causality analysis. The findings revealed that the current summer averages of atmospheric variables have increased and are now comparable to winter averages from ten years ago. High temperatures and Solar_R values were found to precede Perkinsiella population spikes by 6 months. A causal relationship was established between specific atmospheric variables and Perkinsiella. Initial outbreaks were observed during the summer, with population sizes increasing over time. Currently, there is a tendency for the pest to persist throughout the year (winter-summer), necessitating greater biological and chemical control measures to manage populations.
全球变暖是由大气中温室气体的积累造成的，它正在改变动植物物种的生命周期，从而威胁到粮食安全。本研究的目的是探讨气候变量与甘蔗粉角蚜种群的发生率和存在情况之间的关系，甘蔗粉角蚜是一种吸食性昆虫，被视为害虫，它会根据气候季节侵袭甘蔗作物。本研究在位于厄瓜多尔马塞利诺·马里杜埃尼亚的圣卡洛斯糖厂的甘蔗种植园中进行。我们分析了2006年至2023年的气候数据和甘蔗粉角蚜种群记录，应用了各种参数统计检验（KS检验、方差分析、巴特利特检验、迪基 - 富勒检验）和非参数统计检验（斯皮尔曼检验、夏皮罗检验、克鲁斯卡尔 - 沃利斯检验、莱文检验），以及交叉相关性分析和因果关系分析。研究结果表明，目前大气变量的夏季平均值有所增加，现在与十年前的冬季平均值相当。发现高温和太阳辐射值比甘蔗粉角蚜种群数量激增提前6个月出现。特定大气变量与甘蔗粉角蚜之间建立了因果关系。在夏季观察到初始爆发，种群数量随时间增加。目前，这种害虫有全年（冬季 - 夏季）持续存在的趋势，因此需要采取更多的生物和化学控制措施来管理种群数量。
