Hosseini Naser, Mostafavi Hossein, Ghorbanpour Mansour
Department of Medicinal Plants, Faculty of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Arak University, Arak, 38156-8-8349, Iran.
Department of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Management, Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran.
Integr Environ Assess Manag. 2025 Jul 1;21(4):771-783. doi: 10.1093/inteam/vjaf043.
Climate change, driven by both natural and human influences, presents serious threats to biodiversity and the distribution of species over the coming decades. To examine the effects of climate change on species distribution and habitat suitability, researchers have widely used species distribution models (SDMs). This study specifically investigated Zataria multiflora, a valuable medicinal plant found in Iranian rangelands. The aim was to identify the critical factors influencing the distribution of Z. multiflora and assess how climate change may affect its range. We utilized the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), incorporating eight environmental variables: maximum temperature of the warmest month, minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual temperature range, precipitation of the driest quarter, precipitation of the coldest quarter, depth to bedrock, slope, and solar radiation. The results indicated that solar radiation, slope, precipitation during the warmest quarter (bio17), and maximum temperature of the warmest month (bio5) were the most significant factors affecting the species' distribution. Projections suggest a potential decrease in the species' range by 43.98%, 51.60%, 54.20%, and 68.10% under representative concentration pathways 4.5-2050, 8.5-2050, 4.5-2070, and 8.5-2070, respectively. These insights can assist decision-makers in developing effective conservation strategies to protect and sustainably manage Z. multiflora in light of global climate change. Given the expected habitat loss, in situ conservation efforts should be prioritized for the protection of Z. multiflora.
由自然和人类影响共同驱动的气候变化，在未来几十年对生物多样性和物种分布构成了严重威胁。为了研究气候变化对物种分布和栖息地适宜性的影响，研究人员广泛使用了物种分布模型（SDMs）。本研究特别调查了伊朗牧场中一种珍贵的药用植物——多花百里香。目的是确定影响多花百里香分布的关键因素，并评估气候变化可能如何影响其分布范围。我们利用了最大熵模型（MaxEnt）并纳入了八个环境变量：最暖月最高温度、最冷月最低温度、年温度范围、最干季降水量、最寒季降水量、基岩深度、坡度和太阳辐射。结果表明，太阳辐射、坡度、最暖季降水量（bio17）和最暖月最高温度（bio5）是影响该物种分布的最重要因素。预测表明，在代表性浓度路径4.5-2050、8.5-2050、4.5-2070和8.5-2070下，该物种的分布范围可能分别减少43.98%、51.60%、54.20%和68.10%。这些见解可以帮助决策者制定有效的保护策略，以便在全球气候变化背景下保护和可持续管理多花百里香。鉴于预期的栖息地丧失，应优先进行原地保护工作以保护多花百里香。
