Liang Boheng, Zhou Jingjing, Wang Suixiang, Xu Huan, Li Ke, Liang Huiting, Sun Zeyu, Liu Yanhong, Wang Yawen, Zhang Jiaqi, Qin Pengzhe, Hu Xiaoqin
Department of Chronic Noncommunicable Disease Prevention and Control, Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shanxi Medical University, Taiyuan, Shanxi, China.
Endocrine. 2025 May 19. doi: 10.1007/s12020-025-04274-z.
The spatial and temporal distribution of thyroid cancer in Guangzhou was studied using spatial information system technology, offering a scientific foundation for successful thyroid cancer prevention and treatment.
The Joinpoint model was used to assess the incidence rate of thyroid cancer over time in various regions. Hierarchical maps were created with the ArcGIS software to investigate the spatial distribution features of the incidence rate. Spatial autocorrelation and spatiotemporal scanning analysis methods were used to assess geographical clustering. Standard deviation ellipse analysis was used to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of incidence.
The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) increased from 6.46/10 in 2010 to 33.15/10 in 2020, showing a nearly five-fold increase. The ASIR of urban regions was highest, but the growth rates of suburban regions and rural regions were faster than that of urban regions, and the regional disparity was gradually narrowing. The spatial distribution of thyroid cancer incidence has significant spatial heterogeneity and clustering. The hotspots clustered in the urban regions, Panyu and Nansha districts in the south, Huadu district in the north, and Zengcheng district in the east. The spatiotemporal evolution trends showed that since 2010, the incidence rate first migrated to the south-west, and then migrated to the north-east from 2015.
Significant heterogeneity and clustering were seen in the spatial distribution of the thyroid cancer incidence rate in Guangzhou, and the regional disparity decreased. The direction of evolution consistent with Guangzhou's "Southern Expansion, Northern Enhancement, Eastern Advancement, Western Integration and Central Revitalization" spatial development policy.
运用空间信息系统技术研究广州甲状腺癌的时空分布，为甲状腺癌防治提供科学依据。
采用Joinpoint模型评估各地区甲状腺癌发病率的时间变化趋势。利用ArcGIS软件绘制分层地图，研究发病率的空间分布特征。采用空间自相关和时空扫描分析方法评估地理聚集性。运用标准差椭圆分析方法分析发病率的时空变化趋势。
年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）从2010年的6.46/10万上升至2020年的33.15/10万，增长近5倍。城区ASIR最高，但郊区和农村地区的增长率高于城区，地区差异逐渐缩小。甲状腺癌发病率的空间分布具有显著的空间异质性和聚集性。热点聚集在城区、南部的番禺区和南沙区、北部的花都区以及东部的增城区。时空演变趋势显示，自2010年以来，发病率先向西南方向迁移，2015年后向东北方向迁移。
广州甲状腺癌发病率的空间分布存在显著的异质性和聚集性，地区差异减小。演变方向与广州“南拓、北优、东进、西联、中调”的空间发展政策一致。
