Moise Alexandru D, Wang Chendi
Department of Political and Social Sciences, European University Institute, Fiesole, Italy.
Department of Political Science and Public Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
Eur Union Polit. 2025 Jun;26(2):418-441. doi: 10.1177/14651165251320837. Epub 2025 Mar 14.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine, with its implications for European security, has intensified the need to understand European public opinion on potential conflict strategies. This study delves into the formation of these opinions, focusing on utilitarian factors like economic interests and threat perception, and ideological elements such as political orientation, national identity and perceptions of Russia and Ukraine. Utilising a two-wave panel survey from five European Union (EU) countries, our findings underscore that ideological factors, especially trust in Russia and Ukraine are paramount in shaping support for escalation or de-escalation. Economic concerns, threat perceptions, right-wing ideologies and strong national identities also play significant roles. This research not only illuminates European sentiment on the war in Ukraine but also enriches broader discussions on the determinants of public opinion in international conflicts.
俄罗斯对乌克兰的入侵及其对欧洲安全的影响，加剧了了解欧洲公众对潜在冲突策略看法的必要性。本研究深入探讨这些看法的形成，重点关注经济利益和威胁认知等功利主义因素，以及政治取向、民族认同和对俄罗斯与乌克兰的认知等意识形态因素。利用来自五个欧盟国家的两波面板调查，我们的研究结果强调，意识形态因素，尤其是对俄罗斯和乌克兰的信任，在塑造对局势升级或降级的支持方面至关重要。经济担忧、威胁认知、右翼意识形态和强烈的民族认同也发挥着重要作用。这项研究不仅阐明了欧洲对乌克兰战争的情绪，还丰富了关于国际冲突中公众舆论决定因素的更广泛讨论。
