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气候变化和人类活动影响下中国该属分布范围的变化

Changes in the Distribution Range of the Genus in China Under Climate Change and Human Activities.

作者信息

Zhang Yuxin, Zhang Shujian, Xiao Haiyan, Li Heng, Liao Da, Xue Yuxi, Huang Xinyi, Su Qitao, Xiao Yian

机构信息

Key Laboratory of Jiangxi Province for Biological Invasion and Biosecurity, School of Life Sciences, Jinggangshan University, Ji'an 343009, China.

出版信息

Biology (Basel). 2025 May 21;14(5):581. doi: 10.3390/biology14050581.

Abstract

are perennial herbaceous plants of the Liliaceae family with high ornamental, nutritional, and medicinal value. However, critical knowledge gaps remain regarding the following: (1) the fine-scale habitat preferences of ; (2) the key ecological drivers influencing their growth and distribution. The MaxEnt software 3.4.1 was used to simulate the current and future suitable habitats of , evaluate the impacts of environmental changes on its distribution, and determine the distribution changes under climate change scenarios. The AUC value of the model used in the current study was >0.98, which indicates that the model had good accuracy. The results show that as a typical understory herb, precipitation in the warmest quarter (bio18) and temperature seasonality (bio04) are the main factors affecting the distribution of . In addition, and var. are also affected by slope and human activity. Under the SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585 climate scenarios, the suitable habitat areas of and showed an increasing trend. The suitable habitat area of var. increased under the SSP126 climate scenario; however, it substantially declined in SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios. The distribution area of shifted to higher latitudes. The centroid of shifted more than 5 degrees of latitude during SSP585 2081s, while the centroid of and var. did not shift more than 2 degrees of latitude. In addition, the centroid longitudes of and var. shifted westward under the three climate scenarios. There is ecological niche differentiation among and others, whilst and var. have overlapping ecological niches. In the future, we will strengthen the protection of wild resources in accordance with environmental factors and suitable habitats for .

摘要

是百合科多年生草本植物,具有很高的观赏、营养和药用价值。然而,在以下方面仍存在关键的知识空白:(1)的精细尺度栖息地偏好;(2)影响其生长和分布的关键生态驱动因素。使用MaxEnt软件3.4.1来模拟的当前和未来适宜栖息地,评估环境变化对其分布的影响,并确定气候变化情景下的分布变化。本研究中使用的模型的AUC值>0.98,这表明该模型具有良好的准确性。结果表明,作为一种典型的林下草本植物,最暖季度的降水量(bio18)和温度季节性(bio04)是影响分布的主要因素。此外,和变种也受到坡度和人类活动的影响。在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585气候情景下,和的适宜栖息地面积呈增加趋势。变种的适宜栖息地面积在SSP126气候情景下增加;然而,在SSP245和SSP585情景下大幅下降。的分布区域向更高纬度转移。在SSP585 2081s期间,的质心移动了超过5个纬度,而和变种的质心移动不超过2个纬度。此外,在三种气候情景下,和变种的质心经度向西移动。与其他物种之间存在生态位分化,而和变种具有重叠的生态位。未来,我们将根据环境因素和的适宜栖息地,加强对野生资源的保护。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/491f/12109186/c49a2645a129/biology-14-00581-g001.jpg

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