Su Qitao, Du Zhixuan, Luo Yi, Zhou Bing, Xiao Yi'an, Zou Zhengrong
College of Life Sciences, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China.
School of Life Sciences, Jinggangshan University, Ji'an 330049, China.
Biology (Basel). 2024 Sep 22;13(9):745. doi: 10.3390/biology13090745.
is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 10 km. (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 10 km, and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of is projected to increase by 11.2790.83 × 10 km. It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 10 km) in 20812100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.
是一种多年生草本植物,分布于亚洲东南部和南部。在中国,仅在海南省有发现。随着全球气候变化,研究气候变化对其分布的影响可为该物种的科学保护提供理论依据。在本研究中,基于66个分布点和12个环境变量,使用MaxEnt模型预测了该植物在中国历史时期、当前时期和未来时期的潜在分布区域。结果如下:(i)影响该植物分布的主要环境变量是最冷月和最湿季度的降水量,海拔也是一个重要因素。(ii)在过去三个时期,即末次间冰期、末次盛冰期和中全新世,该植物的适宜面积最初减少,然后增加。适宜面积在末次盛冰期达到最低值,仅为27.03×10平方千米。(iii)当前潜在分布面积为67.81×10平方千米,最优区域主要分布在广西、广东和海南省。(iv)在未来气候情景下,该植物的潜在分布面积预计将增加11.2790.83×10平方千米。预计在SSP-585气候情景下,于20812100年达到最大值(158.64×10平方千米),分布中心将向更高纬度转移。新获得的最优栖息地将为该物种的引种和迁地保护提供潜在区域。