A Al-Ansari Muna, Nabeel Hamad, Abdella Galal M, El Mekkawy Tarek
Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, College of Engineering, Qatar University, Doha P.O. Box 2713, Qatar.
Foods. 2025 May 21;14(10):1834. doi: 10.3390/foods14101834.
Food security indices are widely used to support decision making and provide a structured assessment of countries' capacities to withstand global environmental and economic crises. However, these indices have inherent limitations, including potential biases in ranking and a lack of structural insights into food system dynamics. This study presents a systematic approach that combines elastic-net regression-based feature selection and two-step clustering to address some of these limitations and equip decision makers with structured procedures for making informed decisions and supporting food system management. The mathematical and operational procedures of the proposed approach were demonstrated through an illustrative example using the EIU dataset of 94 countries. The study investigated the sensitivity of composite indicators to extreme data points, relative weights, and dimensionality reduction. After applying elastic-net regression, 15 indicators were selected for Model 1 (M1) and 9 for Model 2 (M2) from an initial set of 25 indicators. Subsequently, two-step clustering grouped the countries into four distinct clusters, reflecting combinations of food system characteristics and income levels. The results demonstrate that countries with industrialized, consolidated food systems and high per capita income tend to exhibit greater food security. Conversely, countries with rural or traditional food systems and low-income levels are more vulnerable to food insecurity. By incorporating statistical rigor and empirical structure discovery, this methodology addresses key limitations of existing indices. It provides an adaptive, transparent framework that informs targeted policy by linking the structural characteristics of food systems to tangible food security outcomes.
粮食安全指数被广泛用于支持决策,并对各国抵御全球环境和经济危机的能力进行结构化评估。然而,这些指数存在固有的局限性,包括排名中可能存在的偏差以及对粮食系统动态缺乏结构性洞察。本研究提出了一种系统方法,该方法结合基于弹性网络回归的特征选择和两步聚类,以解决其中一些局限性,并为决策者提供结构化程序,以便做出明智决策并支持粮食系统管理。通过使用94个国家的经济学人智库(EIU)数据集的示例,展示了所提出方法的数学和操作程序。该研究调查了综合指标对极端数据点、相对权重和降维的敏感性。应用弹性网络回归后,从最初的25个指标中为模型1(M1)选择了15个指标,为模型2(M2)选择了9个指标。随后,两步聚类将这些国家分为四个不同的类别,反映了粮食系统特征和收入水平的组合。结果表明,拥有工业化、整合型粮食系统和高人均收入的国家往往表现出更高的粮食安全水平。相反,拥有农村或传统粮食系统且收入水平较低的国家更容易面临粮食不安全问题。通过纳入统计严谨性和实证结构发现,该方法解决了现有指数的关键局限性。它提供了一个适应性强、透明的框架,通过将粮食系统的结构特征与切实的粮食安全成果联系起来,为有针对性的政策提供依据。