Little Christopher M, Yeager Stephen G, Fasullo John T, Karnauskas Kristopher B, Nerem Robert S, Etige Nishchitha S
Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc., Lexington, MA, USA.
NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Sci Adv. 2025 May 30;11(22):eadw3661. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.adw3661.
Tide gauges provide a long observational record that can inform the nature of satellite-era basin-scale sea level trends. However, common signals must be extracted from geographically sparse records. Here, by applying low-frequency component analysis (LFCA) to tide gauge records and surface climate reconstructions, we isolate three coherent modes of Pacific Ocean variability that we ascribe to: a secular, greenhouse gas-driven climate change (LFC1); a nonlinear mode of variability with a reversal around 1980, potentially linked to aerosols (LFC2); and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (LFC3). Although sea level trend patterns reflect the superimposed contribution of all modes, satellite-era trends are dominated by an increasing phase of LFC2: They are thus potentially unrepresentative of both longer-term historical patterns and those expected in the future.
验潮仪提供了长期的观测记录，有助于了解卫星时代盆地尺度海平面变化趋势的特征。然而，必须从地理分布稀疏的记录中提取共同信号。在此，通过对验潮仪记录和地表气候重建应用低频分量分析（LFCA），我们分离出太平洋变化的三种连贯模式，我们将其归因于：长期的、由温室气体驱动的气候变化（LFC1）；一种在1980年左右发生逆转的非线性变化模式，可能与气溶胶有关（LFC2）；以及年代际太平洋涛动（LFC3）。尽管海平面变化趋势模式反映了所有模式的叠加贡献，但卫星时代的趋势主要由LFC2的上升阶段主导：因此，它们可能既不能代表长期历史模式，也不能代表未来预期模式。
