Wang Chenyang, Ba Rui, Wang Ranpeng, Zhang Hui
Department of Engineering Physics, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China.
J Saf Sci Resil. 2022 Dec;3(4):321-329. doi: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2022.06.002. Epub 2022 Jul 9.
Herein, a matching method for varied epidemic phase characteristics and appropriate strategies is presented, aiming at the complexities of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic and the hysteresis of strategies. The classical diffusion dynamic models of the epidemic spread are compared. Furthermore, the Bass diffusion model is selected to study more characteristics of an epidemic, such as the diversities in regional internal and external infection rates. Thereafter, the classical division method vis-à-vis a pandemic life cycle is improved. A specific approach is proposed to portray more detailed characteristics of the pandemic by dividing it into more phases. Next, a four-level epidemic prevention and control measure system is concretized. The applicable phases and strategic effectiveness of each measure are integrated into the different phases of the pandemic life cycle. Finally, the matching method is applied to analyze two cases of the spread of the outbreak in cities and significant events. The findings provide a certain reference for the effectiveness of the matching method in the post-peak epidemic period.
本文提出了一种针对不同疫情阶段特征的匹配方法及相应策略，旨在应对2019年新型冠状病毒病大流行的复杂性和策略的滞后性。对经典的疫情传播扩散动力学模型进行了比较。此外，选择巴斯扩散模型来研究疫情的更多特征，如区域内外感染率的差异。此后，改进了针对大流行生命周期的经典划分方法。提出了一种具体方法，通过将大流行划分为更多阶段来描绘其更详细的特征。接下来，细化了四级疫情防控措施体系。将每项措施的适用阶段和战略效果纳入大流行生命周期的不同阶段。最后，应用该匹配方法分析了城市疫情传播和重大事件的两个案例。研究结果为该匹配方法在疫情高峰期后阶段的有效性提供了一定参考。
