Liu Feng, Kong Deli, Xiao Zilong, Zhang Xiaohui, Zhou Aimin, Qi Jiayin
School of Computer Science and Technology, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China.
Institute of Artificial Intelligence and Change Management, Shanghai University of International Business and Economics, Shanghai 203356, China.
J Saf Sci Resil. 2022 Mar;3(1):24-38. doi: 10.1016/j.jnlssr.2021.10.006. Epub 2021 Oct 30.
The global epidemic of COVID-19 has made a huge impact on global health and financial markets. And the spread of the virus has stalled economic development in many parts of the world. As stocks and bonds are two important financial assets, how to take appropriate economic policies to restore the stock and bond markets is the focus of governments as they are seeking for quick recovery. Based on the Event Study method and the GARCH model, data from 1 October 2019 to 1 April 2020 were collected from 26 countries or regions as analytic samples. The results show: 1) COVID-19 has made greater impacts on the stock market than the bond market; 2) the economic policy responses after the COVID-19 has brought impacts on both of the stock and the bond markets; 3) the monetary policy responses has brought greater volatility to the stock market than the fiscal policy responses, while the fiscal policy responses has brought greater volatility to the bond market than the monetary policy; 4) the fiscal policy has brought more positive effects on the stock market, and monetary policy has brought more positive effects on the bond market. This research is helpful to understand the mechanism of COVID-19's impacts on the stock and bond market. And it is of great practical significance to the governments' decisions to make economic policy responses after an epidemic.
新冠疫情的全球流行对全球健康和金融市场产生了巨大影响。病毒的传播使世界许多地区的经济发展陷入停滞。由于股票和债券是两种重要的金融资产，如何采取适当的经济政策来恢复股票和债券市场是各国政府寻求快速复苏的重点。基于事件研究法和广义自回归条件异方差（GARCH）模型，收集了2019年10月1日至2020年4月1日期间来自26个国家或地区的数据作为分析样本。结果表明：1）新冠疫情对股票市场的影响大于债券市场；2）新冠疫情后的经济政策应对措施对股票和债券市场都产生了影响；3）货币政策应对措施给股票市场带来的波动大于财政政策应对措施，而财政政策应对措施给债券市场带来的波动大于货币政策；4）财政政策对股票市场带来的积极影响更大，货币政策对债券市场带来的积极影响更大。本研究有助于理解新冠疫情对股票和债券市场的影响机制。对政府在疫情后做出经济政策应对决策具有重要的现实意义。
