Xu Xiao-Ke, Liu Xiao Fan, Wang Lin, Wu Ye, Lu Xin, Wang Xianwen, Pei Sen
College of Information and Communication Engineering, Dalian Minzu University, Dalian 116600, China.
Web Mining Laboratory, Department of Media and Communication, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China.
Fundam Res. 2022 Apr 22;3(2):305-310. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2022.04.006. eCollection 2023 Mar.
The spatial spread of COVID-19 during early 2020 in China was primarily driven by outbound travelers leaving the epicenter, Wuhan, Hubei province. Existing studies focus on the influence of aggregated out-bound population flows originating from Wuhan; however, the impacts of different modes of transportation and the network structure of transportation systems on the early spread of COVID-19 in China are not well understood. Here, we assess the roles of the road, railway, and air transportation networks in driving the spatial spread of COVID-19 in China. We find that the short-range spread within Hubei province was dominated by ground traffic, notably, the railway transportation. In contrast, long-range spread to cities in other provinces was mediated by multiple factors, including a higher risk of case importation associated with air transportation and a larger outbreak size in hub cities located at the center of transportation networks. We further show that, although the dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 across countries and continents is determined by the worldwide air transportation network, the early geographic dispersal of COVID-19 within China is better predicted by the railway traffic. Given the recent emergence of multiple more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2, our findings can support a better assessment of the spread risk of those variants and improve future pandemic preparedness and responses.
2020年初新冠病毒在中国的空间传播主要是由离开疫情中心湖北省武汉市的出境旅客推动的。现有研究关注的是源自武汉的总体出境人口流动的影响；然而，不同交通方式以及交通系统的网络结构对新冠病毒在中国早期传播的影响尚未得到充分理解。在此，我们评估公路、铁路和航空运输网络在推动新冠病毒在中国空间传播中所起的作用。我们发现，湖北省内的短程传播以地面交通为主，特别是铁路运输。相比之下，向其他省份城市的远程传播是由多种因素介导的，包括与航空运输相关的更高病例输入风险以及位于交通网络中心的枢纽城市中更大的疫情规模。我们进一步表明，虽然严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2在国家和各大洲之间的传播由全球航空运输网络决定，但新冠病毒在中国境内的早期地理扩散通过铁路交通能得到更好的预测。鉴于最近出现了多种传染性更强的严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2变体，我们的研究结果有助于更好地评估这些变体的传播风险，并改善未来的疫情防范和应对措施。
