Zhang Pengfei, Zhao Xu, Sun Laixiang, Zuo Jian, Wei Wendong, Liu Xi, Peng Xu, Shan Yuli, Li Shuping, Ge Liming, Feng Kuishuang, Li Jiashuo
Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University, Weihai 264209, China.
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, USA.
Fundam Res. 2023 Mar 14;5(3):1221-32. doi: 10.1016/j.fmre.2023.02.017.
Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, power generation and the associated CO emissions in major countries have experienced a decline and rebound. Knowledge on how an economic crisis affects the emission dynamics of the power sector would help alleviate the emission rebound in the post-COVID-19 era. In this study, we investigate the mechanism by which the 2008 global financial crisis sways the dynamics of power decarbonization. The method couples the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) and environmentally extended input-output analysis. Results show that, from 2009 to 2011, global power generation increased rapidly at a rate higher than that of GDP, and the related CO emissions and the emission intensity of global electricity supply also rebounded; the rapid economic growth in fossil power-dominated countries (e.g., China, the United States, and India) was the main reason for the growth of electricity related CO emissions; and the fixed capital formation was identified as the major driver of the rebound in global electricity consumption. Lessons from the 2008 financial crisis can provide insights for achieving a low-carbon recovery after the COVID-19 crisis, and specific measures have been proposed, for example, setting electricity consumption standards for infrastructure construction projects to reduce electricity consumption induced by the fixed capital formation, and attaching energy efficiency labels and carbon footprint labels to metal products (e.g., iron and steel, aluminum, and fabricated metal products), large quantities of which are used for fixed capital formation.
自新冠疫情爆发以来，主要国家的发电量及相关碳排放经历了下降和反弹。了解经济危机如何影响电力部门的排放动态，将有助于缓解后新冠疫情时代的排放反弹。在本研究中，我们探究2008年全球金融危机影响电力部门脱碳动态的机制。该方法结合了对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）和环境扩展投入产出分析。结果表明，2009年至2011年，全球发电量以高于GDP的速度快速增长，全球电力供应的相关碳排放及排放强度也出现反弹；化石能源主导型国家（如中国、美国和印度）的经济快速增长是电力相关碳排放增加的主要原因；固定资本形成被确定为全球电力消费反弹的主要驱动因素。2008年金融危机的教训可为后新冠疫情危机实现低碳复苏提供借鉴，我们提出了具体措施，例如为基础设施建设项目设定电力消费标准，以减少固定资本形成带来的电力消耗，以及为金属产品（如钢铁、铝和金属制品）贴上能效标签和碳足迹标签，这些金属产品大量用于固定资本形成。
