Bußmann Anna, Speckemeier Christian, Ehm Alexandra, Kollar Bettina, Neumann Anja, Neusser Silke
Essener Forschungsinstitut für Medizinmanagement (EsFoMed) GmbH, Essen, Germany.
Boehringer Ingelheim International GmbH, Ingelheim am Rhein, Germany.
PLoS One. 2025 Jun 11;20(6):e0325182. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0325182. eCollection 2025.
Demographic change and changing lifestyles are leading to a steady increase in so-called population diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease. Both conditions are often preceded by a latency period during which lifestyle changes and/or medications have the potential to delay or even prevent disease onset. Thus, detection of those at an increased risk of these diseases is of great importance. A scoping review was conducted to collate different prediction approaches for type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease.
Literature searches were performed in PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. A stepwise approach was used, consisting of searches for systematic reviews and primary literature, and additional Google searches for novel approaches. Included was literature that (1) presented an approach for risk prediction of incident type 2 diabetes mellitus or chronic kidney disease, (2) contained information on the risk factors considered and application, (3) targeted the general population, (4) was written in English or German language, and (5) for which an abstract and full-text was available. Literature screening was carried out by two persons independently.
Studies extracted literature from 1940 to 2023. Prediction approaches were included from 25 literature reviews, eight primary studies and nine studies found in additional searches. Several different approaches were identified, including methods based on clinical parameters, biological parameters (blood, urine, microbiome, genetics), the combinations of those, sequential approaches, and exposure and lifestyle factors. Most of the identified approaches were risk surveys that usually ask for simple and readily available parameters. Novel approaches cover transdermal optical imaging, prediction based on facial blood flow and using deoxyribonucleic acid methylation data.
This scoping review provides an overview of different tools for the risk prediction of type 2 diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease. In addition to established tools, which are primarily risk surveys, innovative approaches have been developed and evaluated in recent years in which the potential of machine learning is utilized. As cardio-renal-metabolic diseases share predicting factors and given the social and economic importance of these diseases, approaches that address multiple relevant diseases such as type 2 diabetes mellitus, chronic kidney disease and cardiovascular disease can be of great interest, especially in time- and resource-constrained healthcare settings.
人口结构变化和生活方式的改变导致诸如2型糖尿病和慢性肾脏病等所谓的“人群疾病”稳步增加。这两种疾病通常都有一个潜伏期，在此期间，生活方式的改变和/或药物治疗有可能延缓甚至预防疾病的发生。因此，识别那些患这些疾病风险增加的人群非常重要。本研究进行了一项范围综述，以整理2型糖尿病和慢性肾脏病的不同预测方法。
在PubMed、Embase、Web of Science和谷歌学术上进行文献检索。采用逐步检索方法，包括检索系统评价和原始文献，并通过谷歌进一步检索新方法。纳入的文献需满足以下条件：（1）提出了预测2型糖尿病或慢性肾脏病发病风险的方法；（2）包含所考虑的危险因素及应用的相关信息；（3）针对普通人群；（4）以英文或德文撰写；（5）有摘要和全文。文献筛选由两人独立进行。
纳入了1940年至2023年的文献。从25篇文献综述、8项原始研究以及额外检索中找到的9项研究中提取了预测方法。确定了几种不同的方法，包括基于临床参数、生物学参数（血液、尿液、微生物组、遗传学）的方法、两者的组合、序贯方法以及暴露和生活方式因素。大多数已确定的方法是风险调查，通常询问简单且易于获取的参数。新方法包括经皮光学成像、基于面部血流的预测以及使用脱氧核糖核酸甲基化数据。
本范围综述概述了2型糖尿病和慢性肾脏病风险预测的不同工具。除了主要是风险调查的既定工具外，近年来还开发并评估了利用机器学习潜力的创新方法。由于心肾代谢疾病有共同的预测因素，且鉴于这些疾病的社会和经济重要性，针对多种相关疾病（如2型糖尿病、慢性肾脏病和心血管疾病）的方法可能会引起极大兴趣，尤其是在时间和资源有限的医疗环境中。
