Li Danying, Gressier Mathilde, Hill Zoe, Olney Jack, Targett Victoria, Young Michelle, Sassi Franco
Centre for Health Economics & Policy Innovation, Department of Economics & Public Policy, Imperial College Business School, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Section for Nutrition Research, Department of Metabolism, Digestion and Reproduction, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Br J Nutr. 2025 Mar 28;133(6):751-762. doi: 10.1017/S000711452400182X. Epub 2025 Jun 16.
Building on the success of the Soft Drinks Industry Levy (SDIL), new tax proposals have been considered in the public health policy debate in the UK. To inform such debate, estimates of the potential impacts of alternative tax scenarios are of critical importance. Using a modelling approach, we studied the effects of two tax scenarios: (1) a hypothetical excise tax designed to tax food products included in the Sugar Reduction Programme (SRP), accounting for pack size to reduce the convenience of purchasing larger quantities at once; (2) an ad valorem tax targeting products based on the UK Nutrient Profile Model (NPM). Simulations of scenario 1 show a reduction in sugar purchased of up to 38 %, with the largest decreases observed for sweet confectionery with a tiered tax, similar in structure to the SDIL. Expected food reformulation in scenario 1 led to further decreases in sugar purchased for all categories. In scenario 2, under the assumption that the tax would not affect purchases of healthier products, a 20 % tax on less healthy products would reduce total sugar purchased by 4·3 % to 14·7 % and total energy by 4·7 % to 14·8 %. Despite some limitations and assumptions, our results suggest that new fiscal policy options hold a significant potential for improving diet quality beyond what has been achieved by the SDIL and SRP. An estimated increase in consumer expenditures in both scenarios suggests that attention needs to be paid to potentially regressive effects in the design of any new food taxes.
基于软饮料行业税（SDIL）的成功经验，英国公共卫生政策辩论中已在考虑新的税收提案。为了为这种辩论提供信息，对替代税收方案潜在影响的估计至关重要。我们采用建模方法研究了两种税收方案的影响：（1）一种假设的消费税，旨在对减糖计划（SRP）中包含的食品征税，考虑包装尺寸以降低一次性购买大量产品的便利性；（2）一种基于英国营养成分模型（NPM）针对产品的从价税。方案1的模拟显示，购买的糖最多可减少38%，对于实行分级税的甜糖果观察到最大降幅，其结构与SDIL类似。方案1中预期的食品配方改革导致所有类别的购买糖量进一步下降。在方案2中，假设该税不会影响更健康产品的购买，对不健康产品征收20%的税将使购买的总糖量减少4.3%至14.7%，总能量减少4.7%至14.8%。尽管存在一些局限性和假设，但我们的结果表明，新的财政政策选项在改善饮食质量方面具有巨大潜力，超出了SDIL和SRP所取得的成果。两种方案中消费者支出的估计增加表明，在设计任何新的食品税时需要关注潜在的累退效应。
