Maru Ayinewa Yigermal, Belay Zegeye Mesele, Ayanaw Alemu Tesfahun, Belaye Tefera Abate
Economics, Woldia University, Weldiya, Amhara, Ethiopia.
F1000Res. 2025 May 7;13:685. doi: 10.12688/f1000research.151984.2. eCollection 2024.
Empirical studies on the impact of devaluation in developing countries, including Ethiopia, have revealed diverse and mixed results. The effects can be positive or negative depending on the specific economic context and policies in place.This study addresses the devaluation puzzle by providing a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of how devaluation affects the balance of payments and output.
To achieve this, we employ a recursive structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model focusing on Ethiopia from 2001Q1 to 2023Q4.
The estimation results indicate that the real effective exchange rate channel effectively influences both the balance of payments and output in Ethiopia. Additionally, while foreign asset reserves, money supply, and inflation channels have a stronger impact on output, their effect on the balance of payments is relatively weak. The analysis further indicates that currency depreciation can improve the BOP in the short period by enhancing export competitiveness; however, it may have negative long-period effects due to rising import prices. Similarly, although an increased money supply can stimulate economic activity and strengthen the BOP, excessive expansion risks inflation and trade deficits. Furthermore, inflation negatively impacts both the BOP and GDP by escalating import costs and diminishing competitiveness. Foreign exchange reserves play a crucial role in supporting external liquidity and investor confidence, essential for economic stability.
The interconnectedness of these factors emphasizes the need for policymakers to implement effective management strategies, including enhancing foreign reserve management, controlling inflation, and adopting a balanced exchange rate policy. Continuous monitoring of these policies will help address emerging challenges and improve Ethiopia's competitiveness in the global market.
包括埃塞俄比亚在内的发展中国家货币贬值影响的实证研究呈现出多样且复杂的结果。其影响可能是积极的，也可能是消极的，这取决于具体的经济背景和现行政策。本研究通过更全面、细致地理解货币贬值如何影响国际收支和产出，来解决货币贬值难题。
为实现这一目标，我们采用了一个递归结构向量自回归（SVAR）模型，该模型聚焦于2001年第一季度至2023年第四季度的埃塞俄比亚。
估计结果表明，实际有效汇率渠道对埃塞俄比亚的国际收支和产出均有有效影响。此外，虽然外国资产储备、货币供应和通胀渠道对产出的影响更强，但它们对国际收支的影响相对较弱。分析进一步表明，货币贬值在短期内可通过提高出口竞争力来改善国际收支；然而，由于进口价格上涨，它可能在长期产生负面影响。同样，尽管货币供应量增加可以刺激经济活动并增强国际收支，但过度扩张有引发通胀和贸易赤字的风险。此外，通胀通过提高进口成本和削弱竞争力对国际收支和国内生产总值均产生负面影响。外汇储备在支持外部流动性和投资者信心方面发挥着关键作用，这对经济稳定至关重要。
这些因素的相互关联性强调了政策制定者实施有效管理策略的必要性，包括加强外汇储备管理、控制通胀以及采取平衡的汇率政策。持续监测这些政策将有助于应对新出现的挑战，并提高埃塞俄比亚在全球市场的竞争力。
