Hommels N M C, Mourits M C M, Focker M, van der Fels-Klerx H J
Business Economics Group, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Wageningen Food Safety Research, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands.
Curr Res Food Sci. 2025 Jun 1;10:101098. doi: 10.1016/j.crfs.2025.101098. eCollection 2025.
The emergence of food safety risks can be influenced by various causes, also known as drivers of change. Understanding the characteristics related to the manageability of these drivers and the health impact of their associated hazards is critical for effective food safety management and resource allocation. This study aims to categorize drivers of change for known food safety hazards based on their impact on human health and their manageability. Identified drivers were categorized and ranked through an expert survey and a PROMETHEE multi-criteria analysis. The weighted performance criteria are controllability and volatility of the driver, and likelihood and severity of the associated hazards. Results show that the severity of associated hazards is the most important criterion, while volatility of the driver is considered least important by experts. All drivers of change were ranked based on their potential impact on food safety and categorized in a driver matrix with four categories. Categorization is based on the combined effect of expected negative health impact (low or high) and manageability (difficult or easy). The four categories are: "monitor and adapt" (low, difficult), "analyze and optimize" (low, easy), "leverage and innovate" (high, easy), and finally "strategize and endure" (high, difficult). Two drivers-environmental contamination and geopolitical conflict-are categorized as difficult to manage and associated with highly likely and severe health consequences. These drivers represent critical challenges requiring long-term strategic efforts. Six drivers are highly manageable (low health impact: legislation, policies and governance, technologies in food production, food processing technologies; high impact: management of natural resources, bioprocesses, supply chain) and could be leveraged to influence food safety hazards. The results are shown to be robust against changes in criteria weighting. These findings can support decision makers in shifting focus toward manageable drivers and tailoring strategies by driver category. For effective action, it is essential to understand the specific risks and benefits of each driver and the burden of their associated hazards. Future work should explore the top-ranked drivers and integrate these insights into holistic food safety management strategies.
食品安全风险的出现可能受到多种原因的影响，这些原因也被称为变革驱动因素。了解与这些驱动因素的可管理性相关的特征及其相关危害对健康的影响，对于有效的食品安全管理和资源分配至关重要。本研究旨在根据已知食品安全危害的变革驱动因素对人类健康的影响及其可管理性进行分类。通过专家调查和PROMETHEE多标准分析对识别出的驱动因素进行分类和排序。加权绩效标准是驱动因素的可控性和波动性，以及相关危害的可能性和严重性。结果表明，相关危害的严重性是最重要的标准，而驱动因素的波动性被专家认为是最不重要的。所有变革驱动因素都根据其对食品安全的潜在影响进行了排名，并在一个包含四类的驱动因素矩阵中进行了分类。分类基于预期负面健康影响（低或高）和可管理性（困难或容易）的综合影响。这四类分别是：“监测与适应”（低，困难）、“分析与优化”（低，容易）、“利用与创新”（高，容易），最后是“制定战略与承受”（高，困难）。两个驱动因素——环境污染和地缘政治冲突——被归类为难以管理，且与极有可能和严重的健康后果相关。这些驱动因素代表了需要长期战略努力的重大挑战。六个驱动因素具有高度可管理性（对健康影响低：立法、政策与治理、食品生产技术、食品加工技术；影响高：自然资源管理、生物过程、供应链），可以利用它们来影响食品安全危害。结果表明，这些结果在标准权重变化时具有稳健性。这些发现可以支持决策者将重点转向可管理的驱动因素，并根据驱动因素类别调整策略。为了采取有效行动，必须了解每个驱动因素的具体风险和益处及其相关危害的负担。未来的工作应该探索排名靠前的驱动因素，并将这些见解纳入整体食品安全管理策略。
