Alves-Costa Silas, Romandini Mario, Nascimento Gustavo G
Graduate Program in Dentistry, Federal University of Maranhão, São Luís, Brazil.
Perio-Implant Innovation Center, Institute for Integrated Oral, Craniofacial and Sensory Research-National Clinical Research Center of Stomatology, Ninth People's Hospital, Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai, China.
J Periodontal Res. 2025 Jun 18. doi: 10.1111/jre.13421.
To (i) assess the prevalence, incidence, and burden of lip and oral cavity cancer, untreated caries, and "other oral conditions" (a group that includes temporomandibular disorders, malocclusion, and dental trauma, among others) in 2021; and (ii) forecast their estimates in 2050. Aggregate estimates for overall oral conditions (comprising caries, periodontitis, and edentulism, but excluding cancer) were also evaluated.
Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), Years of Life Lost (YLLs), Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), and deaths were reported for lip and oral cavity cancer. Untreated caries and "other oral conditions" were described as prevalence and YLDs, with incidence included only for caries. Aggregate estimates for overall oral conditions encompassed prevalence, incidence, and YLDs. Data were gathered globally, covering 204 countries, seven super-regions, and 21 regions from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study in 2021, with projections up to 2050 using mixed-effects models.
In 2021, over 1.54 million (95% UI 1.44; 1.63) people worldwide were affected by lip and oral cavity cancer, with a global age-standardized prevalence of 0.02%. The burden included 1.28 YLDs per 100 000 (0.97; 1.59), 65.86 YLLs per 100 000 (59.53; 71.00), 67.71 DALYs per 100 000 (61.32; 73.17), and 2.42 deaths per 100 000 (2.21; 2.60). By 2050, prevalence and incidence are projected to increase by +68.7% and + 82.6%, respectively. By that time, lip and oral cavity cancer is expected to rank 119th in terms of YLDs. In 2021, 7.55% (6.29-8.78) of children had untreated caries in deciduous teeth, 27.54% (23.98-32.02) of the adult population had caries in permanent teeth, and 1.86% (1.78-1.93) were affected by "other oral conditions", with 45.91% (42.26-49.78) of the global population experiencing at least one oral condition. By 2050, the prevalence of deciduous caries is projected to decrease by -15.80%, while permanent caries is predicted to rise by +23.77%, and "other oral conditions" will increase by +22.28%. Overall oral conditions (including periodontitis and edentulism, but excluding cancer) are projected to affect 46.17% (42.52-49.95) of the global population in 2050, ranking as the 10th leading cause of YLDs, surpassing conditions such as stroke and Alzheimer's disease.
Lip and oral cavity cancer, along with oral conditions aggregated (caries, periodontitis, edentulism, "other oral conditions"), continued to pose significant public health challenges in 2021, with the number of affected individuals expected to increase substantially in the coming decades, largely driven by rising estimates of edentulism and severe periodontitis.
（i）评估2021年唇癌和口腔癌、未经治疗的龋齿以及“其他口腔疾病”（包括颞下颌关节紊乱病、错牙合畸形和牙外伤等）的患病率、发病率和疾病负担；（ii）预测2050年的相关估计值。还评估了总体口腔疾病（包括龋齿、牙周炎和无牙症，但不包括癌症）的汇总估计值。
报告了唇癌和口腔癌的患病率、发病率、伤残调整生命年（YLDs）、寿命损失年数（YLLs）、伤残调整生命年（DALYs）和死亡人数。未经治疗的龋齿和“其他口腔疾病”以患病率和YLDs进行描述，仅龋齿包括发病率。总体口腔疾病的汇总估计值包括患病率、发病率和YLDs。数据来自全球204个国家、7个超级区域和21个地区，涵盖2021年全球疾病负担（GBD）研究，使用混合效应模型预测至2050年。
2021年，全球超过154万人（95%UI 144；163）受到唇癌和口腔癌影响，全球年龄标准化患病率为0.02%。疾病负担包括每10万人1.28个YLDs（0.97；1.59）、每10万人65.86个YLLs（59.53；71.00）、每10万人67.71个DALYs（61.32；73.17）以及每10万人2.42例死亡（2.21；2.60）。到2050年，患病率和发病率预计分别增加68.7%和82.6%。届时，唇癌和口腔癌预计在YLDs方面排名第119位。2021年，7.55%（6.29 - 8.78）的儿童乳牙有未经治疗的龋齿，27.54%（23.98 - 32.02）的成年人口恒牙有龋齿，1.86%（1.78 - 1.93）受到“其他口腔疾病”影响，45.91%（42.26 - 49.78）的全球人口患有至少一种口腔疾病。到2050年，乳牙龋齿患病率预计下降15.80%，恒牙龋齿预计上升23.77%，“其他口腔疾病”将增加22.28%。总体口腔疾病（包括牙周炎和无牙症，但不包括癌症）预计在2050年影响全球46.17%（42.52 - 49.95）的人口，成为YLDs的第10大主要原因，超过中风和阿尔茨海默病等疾病。
2021年，唇癌和口腔癌以及汇总的口腔疾病（龋齿、牙周炎、无牙症、“其他口腔疾病”）继续构成重大公共卫生挑战，预计在未来几十年受影响个体数量将大幅增加，主要由无牙症和重度牙周炎估计数上升推动。
