Ou Yang, Iyer Gokul, McJeon Haewon, Cui Ryna, Zhao Alicia, O'Keefe Kowan T V, Zhao Mengqi, Qiu Yang, Loughlin Daniel H
College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Institute of Carbon Neutrality, Peking University, Beijing, China.
Energy Clim Chang. 2023 Dec 1;4. doi: 10.1016/j.egycc.2023.100117.
As decisionmakers at various scales begin to design strategies to implement the US net-zero goal, a holistic understanding of its broader economic and sustainability implications at subnational scales is important to shape public support and facilitate implementation. Here, we use an integrated assessment model to explore four different pathways toward the US net-zero goal and investigate their energy-water-land-health implications at the state level. We show that achieving the net-zero goal implies significant capital turnover (170-200 billion USD/year capital investment and 16-29 billion USD/year stranded assets in the power sector), reduced water withdrawal (120-210 km3/year), avoided air pollution damages (220-300 billion USD/year), and expanded forests (300-500 thousand km2). However, the economic and sustainability implications of achieving the net-zero goal at the state-level may not be correlated to a state's contribution to national emission reductions. Our study lays the foundations for a deeper understanding of the broader implications of the US net-zero goal to facilitate cost-effective and environmentally sustainable transitions toward that goal.
随着各级决策者开始制定实现美国净零目标的战略，全面了解其在国家以下层面更广泛的经济和可持续性影响，对于获得公众支持并推动目标实现至关重要。在此，我们使用综合评估模型来探索实现美国净零目标的四种不同途径，并研究它们在州层面的能源-水-土地-健康影响。我们发现，实现净零目标意味着大量资本周转（每年1700亿至2000亿美元的资本投资以及电力部门每年160亿至290亿美元的搁浅资产）、取水量减少（每年120至210立方千米）、避免空气污染损失（每年2200亿至3000亿美元）以及森林面积扩大（30万至50万平方千米）。然而，在州层面实现净零目标的经济和可持续性影响可能与该州对国家减排的贡献无关。我们的研究为更深入理解美国净零目标的更广泛影响奠定了基础，以促进朝着该目标进行具有成本效益和环境可持续性的转型。
