Beyond capacity limits: can social cohesion offset the impact of service constraints on youth mental health?

BACKGROUND

Rates of youth anxiety, depression, and self-harm have increased substantially in recent years. Expansion of clinical service capacity is constrained by workforce shortages and system fragmentation, and even substantial investment may not achieve the scale of growth required to address unmet need. Preventive strategies - such as strengthening social cohesion - are therefore essential to alleviate mounting pressures on the mental health system, yet their potential to compensate for these constraints remains unquantified.

METHODS

This study employed a system dynamics model to explore the interplay between service capacity and social cohesion on youth mental health outcomes. The model was developed for a population catchment characterized by a mix of urban, suburban, and rural communities. Primary outcomes were prevalence of psychological distress and mental disorders, and incidence of mental health-related emergency department (ED) presentations among young people aged 15-24 years, projected over a 10-year time horizon. Two-way sensitivity analyses of services capacity and social cohesion were conducted.

RESULTS

Changes to specialized mental health services capacity growth had the greatest projected impact on youth mental health outcomes. Heatmaps revealed thresholds where improvements in social cohesion could offset negative impacts of constrained service capacity. For example, if services capacity growth was sustained at only 80% of baseline, improving social cohesion could still reduce years lived with symptomatic disorder by 6.3%. To achieve a similar scale of improvement without improvements in social cohesion, the current growth rate in services capacity would need to be more than double. Combining a doubling of service capacity growth with reversing the decline in social cohesion could reduce ED presentations by 25.6% and years with symptomatic mental disorder by 19.2%. A doubling of specialized, headspace, and GP services capacity growth could prevent 24,060 years lived with symptomatic mental disorder among youth aged 15-24.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a quantitative framework for understanding how social cohesion improvements can help mitigate workforce constraints in mental health systems, demonstrating the value of integrating service expansion with social cohesion enhancement strategies.