Yin Xinyue, Deng Tingting, Ma Rui, Fu Xiaomei, Yin Ying, Jia Xuemin, Liu Fanjie
Bone Biomechanics Engineering Laboratory of Shandong Province, Shandong Medicinal Biotechnology Center (School of Biomedical Sciences), Neck-Shoulder and Lumbocrural Pain Hospital of Shandong First Medical University, Shandong First Medical University & Shandong Academy of Medical Sciences, Jinan, Shandong, China.
College of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Shandong University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Jinan, China.
Front Public Health. 2025 Jun 13;13:1582618. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2025.1582618. eCollection 2025.
Musculoskeletal disorders impose a heavy burden on society and the healthcare system. This study aims to describe the temporal trends of the burden of the top five musculoskeletal disorders in China, Japan and South Korea, assess their age, period and cohort effects, and predict the disease burden over the next 15 years.
The study utilized the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 data. Key result metrics include the incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of gout, osteoarthritis, low back pain, neck pain and rheumatoid arthritis. Applying Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) models to analyze temporal trends of five major musculoskeletal diseases from 1990 to 2021, considering age, period, and cohort effects. Future burden from 2022 to 2036 was forecasted using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.
From 1990 to 2021, the incidence of gout and osteoarthritis in China increased by 160.5 and 150.4%, respectively, with Japan's gout incidence up by 65.3% and South Korea's gout and rheumatoid arthritis rates rising by 165.0 and 164.6%. The burden of these diseases, except for gout, was higher in female. The risk of musculoskeletal diseases increases with age and recent birth cohorts. The impact of high body mass index (BMI) on gout, low back pain, and osteoarthritis is escalating. By 2036, the disease burden is expected to remain heavy, with varying degrees of increase.
The burden of the five musculoskeletal diseases in China, Japan, and South Korea is significant. There is a particular need to pay close attention to the increasingly severe impact of older adult female populations and high BMI on gout, low back pain, and osteoarthritis. It is recommended that governments increase investment and implement prevention strategies, including weight management and health education.
肌肉骨骼疾病给社会和医疗保健系统带来了沉重负担。本研究旨在描述中国、日本和韩国排名前五的肌肉骨骼疾病负担的时间趋势，评估其年龄、时期和队列效应，并预测未来15年的疾病负担。
本研究利用了《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的数据。关键结果指标包括痛风、骨关节炎、腰痛、颈痛和类风湿关节炎的发病率、患病率和伤残调整生命年（DALYs）。应用Joinpoint回归和年龄-时期-队列（APC）模型分析1990年至2021年五种主要肌肉骨骼疾病的时间趋势，同时考虑年龄、时期和队列效应。使用自回归积分移动平均（ARIMA）模型预测2022年至2036年的未来负担。
1990年至2021年，中国痛风和骨关节炎的发病率分别上升了160.5%和150.4%，日本痛风发病率上升了65.3%，韩国痛风和类风湿关节炎发病率分别上升了165.0%和164.6%。除痛风外，这些疾病在女性中的负担更高。肌肉骨骼疾病的风险随着年龄和近期出生队列的增加而增加。高体重指数（BMI）对痛风、腰痛和骨关节炎的影响正在升级。到2036年，疾病负担预计仍将很重，且有不同程度的增加。
中国、日本和韩国的五种肌肉骨骼疾病负担较重。尤其需要密切关注老年女性人群以及高BMI对痛风、腰痛和骨关节炎日益严重的影响。建议各国政府增加投入并实施预防策略，包括体重管理和健康教育。
