模拟降水和温度对肯尼亚沿海及西部地区疟疾发病率的影响。

Modelling the effects of precipitation and temperature on malaria incidence in coastal and western Kenya.

作者信息

Tariq Amna, Bisanzio Donal, Mutuku Francis, Ndenga Bryson, Jembe Zainab, Maina Priscilla, Chebii Philip, Ronga Charles, Okuta Victoria, LaBeaud A Desiree

机构信息

Department of Pediatrics, Division of Infectious Diseases, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA.

RTI International, Washington, DC, USA.

出版信息

Malar J. 2025 Jul 1;24(1):208. doi: 10.1186/s12936-025-05428-0.

DOI:10.1186/s12936-025-05428-0

PMID:40598170

原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12217918/

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to plague sub-Saharan Africa despite great efforts geared towards its mitigation. In Kenya alone, 70% of the population remains at risk for malaria every year. Malaria is spread by Anopheles mosquitoes carrying the Plasmodium parasite, and displays a complex ecology with various socio-economic, biophysical factors and meteorological predictors, particularly temperature and precipitation, associated with the occurrence of the disease.

METHODS

This study estimated the empirical relationship of temperature and precipitation on the temporal population dynamics of symptomatic malaria cases in Kenyan children living in Ukunda (on Kenyan southern coast), and Kisumu (on Kenyan lake zone) between 2014 and 2022 using daily malaria incidence data collected during a febrile illness surveillance study, merged with daily climatological data collected from ground devices. Generalized additive mixed models (GAMMs) were used to explore the relationship between malaria cases and temperature and precipitation, with Poisson, zero-inflated Poisson and negative binomial distribution and a logarithmic link function. The cross-correlation function assessed the time lags with peak correlations between malaria incidence, precipitation and temperature.

RESULTS

The data showed 673 positive malaria incident cases amongst children in Kisumu compared to 1209 cases in Ukunda. The results indicate a positive correlation of malaria incidence with rainfall and temperature in Kisumu and a positive correlation between malaria incidence and rainfall and a negative correlation between malaria incidence and temperature in Ukunda. The lags between malaria incidence and rainfall were similar for Kisumu and Ukunda and estimated between 7 and 15 weeks. With a time lag of 15 weeks in Ukunda, GAMM depicted a steady relationship between rainfall and malaria cases until rainfall reaches 150 mm and the relationship between malaria cases and temperature peaks at 26-27 °C. In Kisumu using a time lag of 15 weeks in the GAMM, a steady relationship between rainfall and malaria cases was observed until almost 120 mm of rainfall, peaking at 160 mm of rainfall and the relationship between malaria cases and temperature remained steady between 22 and 30 °C.

CONCLUSION

Assessing the changes in malaria case incidence due to changing seasonality and weather patterns provides policymakers with updated information to strategize malaria control policies.

摘要

背景

尽管为减轻疟疾影响做出了巨大努力，但疟疾仍在困扰撒哈拉以南非洲地区。仅在肯尼亚，每年就有70%的人口面临疟疾风险。疟疾由携带疟原虫的按蚊传播，其生态复杂，与各种社会经济、生物物理因素以及气象预测指标（特别是温度和降水）相关，这些因素与疾病的发生有关。

方法

本研究利用在发热疾病监测研究期间收集的每日疟疾发病率数据，并与从地面设备收集的每日气候数据相结合，估算了2014年至2022年期间居住在乌昆达（肯尼亚南部海岸）和基苏木（肯尼亚湖区）的肯尼亚儿童有症状疟疾病例的时间动态与温度和降水之间的经验关系。使用广义相加混合模型（GAMMs），采用泊松分布、零膨胀泊松分布和负二项分布以及对数链接函数来探讨疟疾病例与温度和降水之间的关系。互相关函数评估了疟疾发病率、降水和温度之间具有峰值相关性的时间滞后。

结果

数据显示，基苏木儿童中有673例疟疾病例呈阳性，而乌昆达有1209例。结果表明，基苏木的疟疾发病率与降雨量和温度呈正相关，乌昆达的疟疾发病率与降雨量呈正相关，与温度呈负相关。基苏木和乌昆达的疟疾发病率与降雨量之间的滞后时间相似，估计在7至15周之间。在乌昆达，时间滞后为15周时，GAMM显示降雨量与疟疾病例之间存在稳定关系，直到降雨量达到150毫米，疟疾病例与温度之间的关系在26 - 27°C时达到峰值。在基苏木，GAMM中时间滞后为15周时，观察到降雨量与疟疾病例之间存在稳定关系，直到降雨量接近120毫米，在降雨量为160毫米时达到峰值，疟疾病例与温度之间的关系在22至30°C之间保持稳定。