Saeediankia Afsaneh, Emamgholipour Sara, Pouraram Hamed, Mousavi Abdoreza, Majdzadeh Reza
Department of Community Nutrition, School of Nutrition and Dietetics, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Department of Health Management & Economics, School of Public Health, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
Iran J Public Health. 2023 Jul;52(7):1504-1513. doi: 10.18502/ijph.v52i7.13253.
In 2010, Iran became the first major oil-exporting country to reduce substantially implicit energy subsidies by increasing domestic energy and agricultural prices by up to 20 times. The current research aims to evaluate the profound impact of the countywide implementation of this targeted subsidy reform (TSR) on the consumption patterns of households in Iran, specifically in relation to the consumption of healthy food commodities.
This study employed a robust approach to examine the impact of the TSR on household food consumption, as a natural experiment, using pooled cross-section data from the Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) spanning the years 1992 to 2019. The analysis was based on a comprehensive interpretation of survey data, which served as the primary source for analysis. The estimation procedure utilized an interrupted time series (ITS) model to capture the parameters associated with food consumption.
The findings revealed a substantial increase in household expenditures on food immediately following the policy intervention, with an impressive rise of 823 thousand Rials (equivalent to approximately $6.36 based on the floating exchange rate in 2019). Furthermore, the results strongly indicate a significant annual upward trend in total monthly food expenditures per adult person, surpassing the pre-intervention trend by 441 thousand Rials (approximately $3.40) (P=0.044, CI=[12.86, 1016.81]). Moreover, the implementation of the policy led to an annual per capita increase in fruit consumption by 1.02 grams per day (P=0.225, CI=[-0.68; 2.72]).
This study shows that the initial positive effects of the TSR have gradually been eroded by inflation in subsequent years. This experience can serve as a lesson for all countries that TSR should be accompanied by other measures, such as poverty alleviation interventions, in order to achieve desired long-term results.
2010年，伊朗成为首个大幅削减隐性能源补贴的主要石油出口国，国内能源和农产品价格上涨了20倍。当前研究旨在评估全国范围内实施这一有针对性的补贴改革（TSR）对伊朗家庭消费模式的深远影响，特别是与健康食品商品消费的关系。
本研究采用稳健方法，作为一项自然实验，利用1992年至2019年家庭收入与支出调查（HIES）的混合横截面数据，考察TSR对家庭食品消费的影响。分析基于对调查数据的全面解读，该数据是分析的主要来源。估计程序采用中断时间序列（ITS）模型来获取与食品消费相关的参数。
研究结果显示，政策干预后家庭食品支出大幅增加，令人印象深刻地增长了82.3万里亚尔（根据2019年浮动汇率约合6.36美元）。此外，结果有力表明，每名成年人每月食品总支出呈显著的年度上升趋势，比干预前趋势高出44.1万里亚尔（约合3.40美元）（P = 0.044，置信区间=[12.86, 1016.81]）。此外，该政策的实施使人均水果消费量每年增加1.02克/天（P = 0.225，置信区间=[-0.68; 2.72]）。
本研究表明，TSR的初始积极影响在随后几年逐渐被通货膨胀侵蚀。这一经验可为所有国家提供教训，即TSR应辅之以其他措施，如扶贫干预措施，以取得理想的长期效果。
