Comparing Strategies to Introduce Two New Antibiotics for Gonorrhea: A Modeling Study.

INTRODUCTION

Drug resistance in is an urgent public health threat. The anticipated approval of two new antimicrobials for gonorrhea prompts the need for evidence-based rollout strategies that minimize drug resistance.

METHODS

We used a stochastic compartmental model of men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United States (U.S.) to compare two main strategies-equal allocation and sequential drug deployment-for two new and one existing drug and measured the time for each drug to reach a resistance prevalence threshold of 5%. We conducted broad analyses assessing the sensitivity of our results to wide variation in parameters governing the baseline behavior of the model and drug resistance evolution and fitness.

RESULTS

Compared to the equal allocation strategy, the sequential strategy had reached the resistance prevalence threshold i) for each drug individually in at least as many simulations; ii) for all three drugs in at least as many simulations; and iii) for at least as many drugs on average. After 10 years, no equal allocation strategy simulations had met the 5% resistance prevalence threshold for any of the drugs, whereas 99.6% of sequential simulations had for the first drug, of which 3.5% had also met the threshold for the second drug. The sequential strategy was worse for nearly every reasonable combination of model parameters.

CONCLUSION

In a model of U.S. MSM, the equal allocation strategy for introducing new drugs for gonorrhea matched or outperformed the strategy of sequential introduction in terms of resistance prevalence.