Zhao Xinlong, Wang Yan, Chen Junjin
College of Physical Education, Ludong University, Yantai, 264025, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 12;15(1):25276. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-11339-6.
Marathon events play a crucial role in promoting the synergistic development of sports and tourism economies, significantly influencing the construction of a new "sports + events + tourism" development model and serving as a key driver of regional economic growth. This study analyzed POI data from marathon events in Shandong Province, China, from 2018 to 2024, using spatial analysis tools such as the nearest neighbor index, standard deviational ellipse, and kernel density estimation in geographic information systems to explore the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of marathon events. Additionally, the geographic detector method was employed to identify key factors influencing marathon event development. The results indicate: (1) Regionally, marathon events exhibit significant distribution disparities, with a dispersed spatial layout and a diffusion trend along the northeast-southwest axis, gradually shifting toward inland western areas. This forms a hierarchical spatial structure characterized by a multi-core cluster-based layout. (2) Marathon events are strongly influenced by five key factors: number of universities, GDP per capita, proportion of tertiary industry, policy intensity, and tourism revenue. Among these, policy intensity, number of universities, and proportion of tertiary industry are identified as dynamic factors, showing increasing influence over time. Road mileage, elevation, and river systems represent static factors, maintaining relatively stable effects. Meanwhile, population density, sports-related intangible cultural heritage, tourism revenue, and average temperature are potential factors, exhibiting fluctuating but growing impact trends. (3) Dual-factor interaction analysis reveals three types of interactions: independent, dual-factor enhancement, and nonlinear enhancement. Tourism revenue and road mileage exhibit no interaction. The core interaction factors are sports-related intangible cultural heritage and the number of universities, with the secondary core interaction being sports-related intangible cultural heritage and tourism revenue.
马拉松赛事在推动体育与旅游经济协同发展方面发挥着关键作用，对构建新的“体育+赛事+旅游”发展模式具有重大影响，是区域经济增长的关键驱动力。本研究分析了2018年至2024年中国山东省马拉松赛事的兴趣点（POI）数据，运用地理信息系统中的最近邻指数、标准差椭圆和核密度估计等空间分析工具，探索马拉松赛事的时空分布模式。此外，采用地理探测器方法识别影响马拉松赛事发展的关键因素。结果表明：（1）在区域上，马拉松赛事呈现出显著的分布差异，空间布局分散，沿东北-西南轴呈扩散趋势，逐渐向内陆西部地区转移。这形成了一种以多核集群布局为特征的分层空间结构。（2）马拉松赛事受到五个关键因素的强烈影响：大学数量、人均国内生产总值、第三产业比重、政策强度和旅游收入。其中，政策强度、大学数量和第三产业比重被确定为动态因素，随着时间的推移影响力不断增加。道路里程、海拔和河流系统代表静态因素，影响保持相对稳定。同时，人口密度、体育相关非物质文化遗产、旅游收入和平均气温是潜在因素，呈现出波动但不断增长的影响趋势。（3）双因素交互分析揭示了三种交互类型：独立、双因素增强和非线性增强。旅游收入和道路里程没有交互作用。核心交互因素是体育相关非物质文化遗产和大学数量，次要核心交互是体育相关非物质文化遗产和旅游收入。
