Luo Liang, Gào Xīn, Yang Junting, Zhang Xuewu, Liu Zhike, Li Chun
Department of Chinese Medicine, The People's Hospital of Yubei District of Chongqing, Chongqing, China.
Department of Rheumatology and Immunology, Peking University People's Hospital, Beijing, China.
Ann Med. 2025 Dec;57(1):2532860. doi: 10.1080/07853890.2025.2532860. Epub 2025 Jul 20.
Musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders are a leading cause of disability worldwide, particularly prevalent among women of childbearing age (WCBA). Our aim is to comprehensively assess the global, regional, and national burden of MSK disorders in WCBA, and examine the burden of MSK disorders among WCBA at varying levels of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), then to project the burden of these disorders through to 2045.
This study utilized data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 project, focusing on MSK disorders among WCBA (15-49 years). Age-standardized rate was calculated using the World Standard Population proportions. Descriptive analysis was conducted at global, regional, and national levels. SDI associations were explored using smoothing spline models. Projections to 2045 employed age-period-cohort models using R software.
In 2021, the estimated global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, deaths, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived with Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) rates per 100 000 population of MSK disorders in WCBA were 4933.9 (95% UI 3683.7-6454.4), 20145.9 (17 082.6-23 564.4), 0.7 (0.6-0.8), 40.7 (34.1-45.7), 2090.4 (1414.8-2896.2), and 2131.1 (1455.8-2936.8), respectively. From 1990 to 2021, a total of 183 countries exhibited an increase in prevalence rate and 166 countries showed an upward trend in DALYs rate. Between 1990 and 2021, there was a positive association between the SDI and age-standardized DALYs rate for MSK disorders in WCBA, both globally and regionally. By 2045, the age-standardized number of DALYs for MSK disorders in WCBA is expected to reach 48.8 million, with an age-standardized DALYs rate of 2160 per 100,000 population.
The burden of MSK disorders among WCBA is already substantial and is expected to increase further in the future. Despite the observed decline in age-standardized incidence rate of MSK disorders among WCBA in half of the regions and countries globally, the age-standardized prevalence and DALYs rates have shown an adverse increasing trend. By 2045, the global number of DALYs for MSK disorders in WCBA is projected to exceed 48 million. To mitigate the future burden of MSK disorders in WCBA, stratified and targeted healthcare strategies are essential to improve early diagnosis and treatment.
肌肉骨骼疾病是全球残疾的主要原因，在育龄妇女中尤为普遍。我们的目标是全面评估育龄妇女中肌肉骨骼疾病的全球、区域和国家负担，并研究不同社会人口指数（SDI）水平下育龄妇女中肌肉骨骼疾病的负担，然后预测这些疾病到2045年的负担。
本研究利用了全球疾病负担（GBD）2021项目的数据，重点关注15至49岁育龄妇女中的肌肉骨骼疾病。使用世界标准人口比例计算年龄标准化率。在全球、区域和国家层面进行描述性分析。使用平滑样条模型探索SDI关联。到2045年的预测采用使用R软件的年龄-时期-队列模型。
2021年，估计全球每10万人口中育龄妇女肌肉骨骼疾病的年龄标准化发病率、患病率、死亡数、寿命损失年数、带病生存年数和伤残调整生命年（DALY）率分别为4933.9（95%UI 3683.7-6454.4）、20145.9（17082.6-23564.4）、0.7（0.6-0.8）、40.7（34.1-45.7）、2090.4（1414.8-2896.2）和2131.1（1455.8-2936.8）。从1990年到2021年，共有183个国家的患病率有所上升，166个国家的DALY率呈上升趋势。1990年至2021年期间，全球和区域层面，SDI与育龄妇女肌肉骨骼疾病的年龄标准化DALY率之间均呈正相关。到2045年，预计育龄妇女肌肉骨骼疾病的年龄标准化DALY数将达到4880万，每10万人口的年龄标准化DALY率为2160。
育龄妇女中肌肉骨骼疾病的负担已经很重，预计未来还会进一步增加。尽管在全球一半的地区和国家中观察到育龄妇女肌肉骨骼疾病的年龄标准化发病率有所下降，但年龄标准化患病率和DALY率却呈不利的上升趋势。到2045年，预计育龄妇女肌肉骨骼疾病的全球DALY数将超过4800万。为减轻育龄妇女未来肌肉骨骼疾病的负担，分层和有针对性的医疗保健策略对于改善早期诊断和治疗至关重要。
