Lei Jiali, Gillespie Catherine W, Santoni Serena, Suba Jam, Kanesa-Thasan Niranjan, Sobanjo-Ter Meulen Ajoke
IHME Client Services, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Icosavax, Vaccines & Immune Therapies, BioPharmaceuticals R&D, AstraZeneca, Seattle, Washington, USA.
Open Forum Infect Dis. 2025 Jul 18;12(7):ofaf373. doi: 10.1093/ofid/ofaf373. eCollection 2025 Jul.
The epidemiologic landscape for human metapneumovirus (hMPV), a respiratory pathogen, is poorly characterized, particularly among older adults.
Leveraging the latest estimates of lower respiratory infection (LRI) incidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 and meta-analyzed findings from a systematic literature review, we quantified the incidence of LRI with hMPV in 10 high-income locations among older adults in the most recent prepandemic year (2019): Canada, Chile, France, Germany, New Zealand, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, and United States.
The systematic literature review identified 21 studies with data on the percentage of LRI episodes associated with hMPV in adults aged ≥60 years in the targeted locations. Combining the meta-analyzed percentage of LRI cases associated with hMPV from these studies (7.0%; 95% CI, 5.4%-9.1%) with age-, sex-, and location-specific estimates of LRI incidence from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we estimated that hMPV incidence rates per 100 000 in 2019 among adults aged ≥60 ranged from 185.7 (95% uncertainty interval, 134.7-251.1) in Italy to 462.1 (333.1-628.2) in the United States.
Overall, our literature review, meta-analysis, and modeling study confirm a significant burden of hMPV-associated LRI in older adults. This work fills a critical evidence gap in the epidemiologic landscape of hMPV and yields actionable estimates to inform vaccine development strategies and other strategic initiatives. Future inclusion of hMPV in routine surveillance would enable more comprehensive estimates of hMPV incidence and outcomes.
人偏肺病毒（hMPV）作为一种呼吸道病原体，其流行病学情况尚未得到充分描述，尤其是在老年人中。
利用《2021年全球疾病负担研究》中关于下呼吸道感染（LRI）发病率的最新估计值以及系统文献综述的荟萃分析结果，我们对2019年大流行前最近一年中10个高收入地区（加拿大、智利、法国、德国、新西兰、荷兰、意大利、西班牙、英国和美国）老年人中hMPV所致LRI的发病率进行了量化。
系统文献综述确定了21项研究，这些研究提供了目标地区≥60岁成年人中与hMPV相关的LRI发作百分比的数据。将这些研究中与hMPV相关的LRI病例的荟萃分析百分比（7.0%；95%CI，5.4%-9.1%）与《2021年全球疾病负担研究》中按年龄、性别和地点划分的LRI发病率估计值相结合，我们估计2019年≥60岁成年人中每10万人的hMPV发病率范围从意大利的185.7（95%不确定区间，134.7-251.1）到美国的462.1（333.1-628.2）。
总体而言，我们的文献综述、荟萃分析和建模研究证实了老年人中hMPV相关LRI的重大负担。这项工作填补了hMPV流行病学领域的关键证据空白，并产生了可用于为疫苗开发策略和其他战略举措提供信息的可行估计值。未来将hMPV纳入常规监测将能够更全面地估计hMPV的发病率和结局。
