肺癌的流行病学概况：基于GLOBOCAN 2022最新估计的现状、时间趋势及未来预测
The epidemiological landscape of lung cancer: current status, temporal trend and future projections based on the latest estimates from GLOBOCAN 2022.
作者信息
Ji Yuting, Zhang Yunmeng, Liu Siwen, Li Jingjing, Jin Qianyun, Wu Jie, Duan Hongyuan, Liu Xiaomin, Yang Lei, Huang Yubei
机构信息
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology, Tianjin, National Clinical Research Center for Cancer, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Peking University Cancer Hospital (Inner Mongolia Campus)/Affiliated Cancer Hospital of Inner Mongolia Medical University, Inner Mongolia Cancer Center, Hohhot, China.
出版信息
J Natl Cancer Cent. 2025 Feb 17;5(3):278-286. doi: 10.1016/j.jncc.2025.01.003. eCollection 2025 Jun.
BACKGROUND
Given the relatively unfavorable prognosis and significant geographic differences in lung cancer burden, it is critical to update the global landscape of lung cancer to inform local strategies.
METHODS
Based on the GLOBOCAN 2022, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and mortality rate (ASMR) were compared and linked to the Human Development Index (HDI) across different populations. The temporal trends in ASIR/ASMR were characterized as estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), and demographic projections were performed up to 2050.
RESULTS
Globally, an estimated 2,480,675 cases and 1,817,469 deaths from lung cancer occurred in 2022. Both ASIR and ASMR of lung cancer varied widely by world region, with ASIR ranging from 2.06 to 39.38 per 100,000 and ASMR from 1.95 to 31.70 per 100,000. China alone accounted for >40 % of cases and deaths worldwide. Both ASIR and ARMR of lung cancer increased with HDI ( : 0.54 and 0.47, all values <0.001), regardless of gender. Based on available data, both ASIR during 2001-2010 and ASMR during 2001-2015 showed decreasing trends in males (EAPC: 1.50 % and -2.22 %) but increasing trends in females (EAPC: 1.08 % and 0.07 %). Similar trends in ASIR and ASMR were observed among the elder population (≥50 years); however, downward trends were observed in the younger population (<50 years). Alongside the aging and growth of the population, estimated cases and deaths from overall lung cancer would increase by 86.2 % and 95.2 % up to 2050 as compared with estimates in 2022, respectively. Notably, increased early-onset lung cancer was only observed in transitioning countries, while decreased early-onset lung cancer was observed in transitioned countries.
CONCLUSION
Lung cancer maintained as the leading cancer burden worldwide. Unless timely preventive interventions in tobacco mitigation, early screening, and precise treatment, the global lung cancer burden is expected to increase in the future, especially for transitioning countries.
背景
鉴于肺癌相对不利的预后以及肺癌负担存在显著的地理差异，更新全球肺癌情况对于制定地方策略至关重要。
方法
基于《全球癌症报告2022》，比较了不同人群的年龄标准化发病率（ASIR）和死亡率（ASMR），并将其与人类发展指数（HDI）相关联。ASIR/ASMR的时间趋势以估计年变化百分比（EAPC）来描述，并进行了到2050年的人口预测。
结果
2022年全球估计有2480675例肺癌病例和1817469例肺癌死亡。肺癌的ASIR和ASMR在世界各地区差异很大，ASIR范围为每10万人2.06至39.38例，ASMR范围为每10万人1.95至31.70例。仅中国就占全球病例和死亡的40%以上。无论性别，肺癌的ASIR和ARMR均随HDI增加（相关系数：0.54和0.47，所有P值<0.001）。根据现有数据，2001 - 2010年期间男性的ASIR和2001 - 2015年期间男性的ASMR呈下降趋势（EAPC：-1.50%和-2.22%），而女性呈上升趋势（EAPC：1.08%和0.07%）。在老年人群（≥50岁）中观察到ASIR和ASMR有类似趋势；然而，在年轻人群（<50岁）中观察到下降趋势。随着人口老龄化和增长，到2050年，总体肺癌估计病例数和死亡数与2022年的估计数相比将分别增加86.2%和95.2%。值得注意的是，仅在转型国家观察到早发性肺癌增加，而在已转型国家观察到早发性肺癌减少。
结论
肺癌仍然是全球主要的癌症负担。除非在烟草控制、早期筛查和精准治疗方面及时采取预防性干预措施，否则预计未来全球肺癌负担将会增加，尤其是转型国家。
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