Global, regional, and national burden of idiopathic epilepsy in older adults, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

BACKGROUND

Epilepsy among older populations has emerged as a growing global health concern in recent decades. However, comprehensive analyses of epilepsy burden among older adults are limited. This study aimed to assess the global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in the population aged 60 and above from 1990 to 2021 and project trends through 2035.

METHODS

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2021, we analyzed epilepsy-related metrics including incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across 204 countries and territories, stratified by age, sex, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Data analysis encompassed relative change calculations, as well as average annual percentage change (AAPC). Additionally, we performed a decomposition analysis to determine the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes, and used Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) modeling to project future burden through 2035.

RESULTS

From 1990 to 2021, the global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in older adults increased substantially, with rises in age-standardized incidence (26.64%), prevalence (20.01%), mortality (4.45%), and DALYs (0.32%). Males consistently showed higher burden across metrics. Regional analysis revealed significant disparities, with Western Europe reporting the highest age-standardized incidence rate and Andean Latin America the highest prevalence rate in 2021. Higher SDI regions demonstrated better outcomes in mortality and DALYs, though showing unique increases in age-standardized rates. Population growth emerged as the primary driver of increased burden across regions. Projections through 2035 indicate continuing increases in incidence (AAPC: 1.64%) and prevalence (AAPC: 1.34%) rates, while mortality (AAPC: -1.29%) and DALY (AAPC: -0.12%) rates are expected to decline.

CONCLUSIONS

The global burden of idiopathic epilepsy in older adults has increased significantly, with notable disparities across regions and socioeconomic levels. While projected declines in mortality and DALY rates suggest improving healthcare outcomes, rising incidence and prevalence rates highlight the need for enhanced prevention strategies and specialized geriatric epilepsy care, particularly in resource-limited settings.