Alnefaie Suha A, Bajaber Ameerah S, Alzahrani Ahmed S, Alotaibi Rakan S, Alotaibi Amjad J
Preventive Medicine, Alhada Armed Forces Hospital, Al Hada, SAU.
Internal Medicine, Alhada Armed Forces Hospital, Al Hada, SAU.
Cureus. 2025 Jun 28;17(6):e86910. doi: 10.7759/cureus.86910. eCollection 2025 Jun.
Introduction Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death globally and continues to pose significant challenges to public health in Saudi Arabia. Risk prediction tools are essential in guiding preventive strategies, yet their accuracy may vary across populations. This study aimed to assess and compare the applicability, which was based on the availability of all required variables, and the risk stratification performance of four cardiovascular risk assessment tools, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease (ASCVD) Risk Estimator, Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and QRISK®, among Saudi patients diagnosed with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Methods A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted at Alhada Armed Forces Hospital in Taif, Saudi Arabia, including all Saudi patients aged 18 years and older who were diagnosed with either a first or second myocardial infarction (MI) between January 2020 and January 2025. Data were collected through patient interviews and electronic medical records to retrospectively reconstruct the cardiovascular risk profile prior to the first MI event. Risk scores were calculated using the four tools, and each tool's applicability was based on the availability of all required variables. Statistical analyses were performed to assess tool applicability, risk stratification, and correlations among the tools. Results A total of 65 patients were included, with a mean age of 61 ± 13 years and a mean BMI of 29.9 ± 4.5 kg/m². The majority were male (76.9%), and common comorbidities included hypertension (49.2%), chronic kidney disease (10.8%), and atrial fibrillation (12.3%). QRISK® had the highest applicability (98.5%), followed by FRS (86.2%), ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator (73.8%), and SCORE (66.2%). SCORE identified the highest proportion of high-risk patients (24.3%), followed by QRISK® (21.6%) and FRS (13.5%). Strong-to-very strong correlations were observed between the tools, especially between QRISK® and ACC/AHA ASCVD Risk Estimator (r = 0.937) and QRISK® and FRS (r = 0.905). Conclusion QRISK® showed the highest applicability in this cohort; however, applicability does not reflect predictive accuracy. As these tools were designed for primary prevention, their use in post-MI patients may overestimate risk. Variability in high-risk classifications by the tools could affect preventive decisions. These findings underscore the need for further validation in larger, prospective, primary prevention studies within the Saudi population.
引言
心血管疾病(CVD)是全球首要的死亡原因,并且持续给沙特阿拉伯的公共卫生带来重大挑战。风险预测工具对于指导预防策略至关重要,但其准确性可能因人群而异。本研究旨在评估和比较四种心血管风险评估工具在沙特急性冠状动脉综合征(ACS)患者中的适用性(基于所有所需变量的可得性)和风险分层表现,这四种工具分别是弗明汉风险评分(FRS)、美国心脏病学会/美国心脏协会(ACC/AHA)动脉粥样硬化性心血管疾病(ASCVD)风险评估器、系统性冠状动脉风险评估(SCORE)和QRISK®。
方法
在沙特阿拉伯塔伊夫的哈达武装部队医院进行了一项回顾性横断面研究,纳入了所有年龄在18岁及以上、在2020年1月至2025年1月期间被诊断为首次或第二次心肌梗死(MI)的沙特患者。通过患者访谈和电子病历收集数据,以回顾性重建首次MI事件之前的心血管风险概况。使用这四种工具计算风险评分,每种工具的适用性基于所有所需变量的可得性。进行统计分析以评估工具的适用性、风险分层以及工具之间的相关性。
结果
总共纳入了65例患者,平均年龄为61±13岁,平均体重指数为29.9±4.5kg/m²。大多数为男性(76.9%),常见合并症包括高血压(49.2%)、慢性肾脏病(10.8%)和心房颤动(12.3%)。QRISK®的适用性最高(98.5%),其次是FRS(86.2%)、ACC/AHA ASCVD风险评估器(73.8%)和SCORE(66.2%)。SCORE识别出的高危患者比例最高(24.3%),其次是QRISK®(21.6%)和FRS(13.5%)。观察到这些工具之间存在强至非常强的相关性,尤其是QRISK®与ACC/AHA ASCVD风险评估器之间(r = 0.937)以及QRISK®与FRS之间(r = 0.905)。
结论
QRISK®在该队列中显示出最高的适用性;然而,适用性并不反映预测准确性。由于这些工具是为一级预防设计的,它们在MI后患者中的使用可能会高估风险。工具在高危分类方面的差异可能会影响预防决策。这些发现强调了在沙特人群中进行更大规模、前瞻性一级预防研究以进一步验证的必要性。