Modeling the Future of a Wild Edible Fern Under Climate Change: Distribution and Cultivation Zones of var. in the Dadu-Min River Region.

Under the pressures of global climate change, the sustainable management of plant resources in alpine gorge regions faces severe challenges. var. is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River-Min River basin due to its high edible and medicinal value. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of var. in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, the centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. A production dynamics model was also constructed to identify current and future potential cultivation areas by integrating ecological suitability and nutritional component synergies. The results show that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of var. are predominantly distributed in patchy, fragmented patterns across the Wenchuan, Li, Mao, Luding, and Xiaojin Counties and Kangding City. Under climate change, the "mountain-top trap effect" drives a significant increase in high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones, while moderate-to-low-suitability areas and marginal cultivation zones decrease substantially. Meanwhile, suitable habitats and cultivation areas exhibit a northward migration trend toward higher latitudes. The most significant changes in suitable area and cultivation zone extent, as well as the most pronounced niche shifts, occur under high-emission climate scenarios. This research facilitates the development of suitability-based management strategies for var. in the study region and provides scientific references for the sustainable utilization of montane plant resources in the face of climate change.