Ding Kerou, Feldman Gilad
Department of Psychology, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
R Soc Open Sci. 2025 Jul 9;12(7):250669. doi: 10.1098/rsos.250669. eCollection 2025 Jul.
Partition dependence is the phenomenon in which individuals' evaluations of probabilities are influenced by the partitioning of the information in the way the information is presented or framed. In a Registered Report experiment with an American online Prolific sample ( = 603), we conducted a replication and extension of Studies 1a, 1b, 3 and 4 from a classic article by Fox and Rottenstreich (Fox & Rottenstreich 2003 . , 195-200 (doi:10.1111/1467-9280.02431)) demonstrating the phenomenon. They showed that participants' estimations of an event's likelihood shifted based on minor adjustments of the framing that suggested a change in partitioning perspective ('ignorance prior' priming). Based on a pre-registered replication evaluation criterion, we concluded a mostly successful replication of the findings of Fox and Rottenstreich (2003). Specifically, we found support for partition dependence in scenarios from Study 1a Items 1 and 2, Study 1b and Study 3, with weaker effects, yet with no consistent support for Study 1a Item 3 and Study 4. Our extensions further explored the robustness of partition dependence by examining participants' probability evaluations of complementary events (happen versus not happen) and the impact of task order on judgement and decision making. Overall, the findings suggest support for partition dependence, yet as more nuanced and context-dependent than expected, and the need for further research to understand its mechanisms, robustness and implications across different contexts. Materials, data and code are available on at https://osf.io/g9czs/. This Registered Report has been officially endorsed by Peer Community in Registered Reports: https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.rr.100877.
划分依赖性是指个体对概率的评估会受到信息呈现或框架方式中信息划分的影响这一现象。在一项针对美国在线Prolific样本（= 603）的预注册报告实验中，我们对Fox和Rottenstreich的一篇经典文章（Fox & Rottenstreich 2003.，195 - 200（doi:10.1111/1467 - 9280.02431））中的研究1a、1b、3和4进行了复制和扩展，以证明这一现象。他们表明，参与者对事件可能性的估计会根据框架的微小调整而发生变化，这些调整暗示了划分视角的改变（“无知先验”启动）。基于预注册的复制评估标准，我们得出结论，Fox和Rottenstreich（2003）的研究结果大多成功得到了复制。具体而言，我们在研究1a项目1和2、研究1b和研究3的情景中发现了对划分依赖性的支持，但其影响较弱，而对于研究1a项目3和研究4则没有得到一致支持。我们的扩展研究通过检查参与者对互补事件（发生与不发生）的概率评估以及任务顺序对判断和决策的影响，进一步探索了划分依赖性的稳健性。总体而言，研究结果表明支持划分依赖性，但比预期的更为细微且依赖于上下文，并且需要进一步研究以了解其在不同背景下的机制、稳健性和影响。材料、数据和代码可在https://osf.io/g9czs/获取。本预注册报告已得到预注册报告同行社区的正式认可：https://doi.org/10.24072/pci.rr.100877。
