加拿大当前及未来适合疟疾本地传播的温度情况。

Current and future temperature suitability for autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada.

作者信息

Siebels Kevin, Ng Victoria, Ogden Nicholas, Schofield Steven, Ludwig Antoinette

机构信息

Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 3200 rue Sicotte, St. Hyacinthe, QC, C.P. 5000, J2S 2M2, Canada.

Public Health Risk Sciences Division, National Microbiology Laboratory, Public Health Agency of Canada, 110 Stone Road West, Guelph, ON, N1G 3W4, Canada.

出版信息

Int J Health Geogr. 2025 Aug 6;24(1):21. doi: 10.1186/s12942-025-00407-9.

DOI:10.1186/s12942-025-00407-9

PMID:40770641

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to be one of the most significant infectious diseases in terms of morbidity and mortality. In many parts of North America, including parts of southern Canada, competent malaria vectors Anopheles quadrimaculatus and Anopheles freeborni are present. With climate change, Canada may be increasingly suitable for transmission of the malaria parasite Plasmodium spp. The objective of this study was to identify the geographic locations in Canada where, and the frequency with which, temperature conditions may be suitable for autochthonous transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum under current and projected climate.

METHODS

Temperature and duration thresholds from historic Plasmodium spp. transmission studies were applied on gridded historical and projected data to compute yearly frequencies of suitable conditions in Canada.

RESULTS

The resulting yearly frequencies from 2000 to 2023 show rising trends for both Plasmodium species, with surges reaching 34% of the Canadian population temporarily living under suitable temperature conditions for Plasmodium falciparum, and 56% for Plasmodium vivax. Projected populations percentages vary significantly with the Plasmodium species, climate change scenario, and climate model considered.

CONCLUSION

Our results underscore the increasing risk of autochthonous transmission of malaria in Canada due to climate change.

摘要

背景

疟疾仍是发病率和死亡率方面最为严重的传染病之一。在北美许多地区，包括加拿大南部部分地区，存在适宜传播疟疾的媒介四斑按蚊和弗里伯恩按蚊。随着气候变化，加拿大可能越来越适合疟原虫属疟原虫的传播。本研究的目的是确定在当前和预测气候条件下，加拿大境内温度条件可能适合间日疟原虫和恶性疟原虫本地传播的地理位置以及频率。