评估在近期及预测的气候变化下基孔肯雅病毒在加拿大本土传播的可能性。
Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change.
作者信息
Ng Victoria, Fazil Aamir, Gachon Philippe, Deuymes Guillaume, Radojević Milka, Mascarenhas Mariola, Garasia Sophiya, Johansson Michael A, Ogden Nicholas H
机构信息
National Microbiology Laboratory , Public Health Agency of Canada , Guelph, Ontario and Saint-Hyacinthe , Québec, Canada.
ESCER (Étude et Simulation du Climat à l'Échelle Régionale) centre, Université du Québec à Montréal , Montréal, Québec, Canada.
出版信息
Environ Health Perspect. 2017 Jun 5;125(6):067001. doi: 10.1289/EHP669.
BACKGROUND
Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by and mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070).
METHODS
The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of ; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of . R and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility.
FINDINGS
The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year.
INTERPRETATION
Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669
背景
基孔肯雅病毒（CHIKV）是一种通过伊蚊和埃及伊蚊传播的再度出现的病原体。当前加勒比地区的疫情令人担忧，因为受感染的旅行者有可能将该病毒传播到存在传播媒介且人群易感的国家。尽管加拿大尚未出现基孔肯雅病毒的本土传播，但人们担心伊蚊和基孔肯雅病毒都可能会定殖，特别是在预计的气候变化情况下。我们绘制了加拿大近期（1981 - 2010年）以及预计气候（2011 - 2040年和2041 - 2070年）下基孔肯雅病毒本土传播的风险地图。
方法
基孔肯雅病毒传播的风险是基孔肯雅病毒传播潜力的气候适宜性与埃及伊蚊存在的气候适宜性的综合结果；前者通过随机模型评估以计算R0，后者通过推导一个适合度指标（SIG）来评估，该指标涵盖了一组已知会影响埃及伊蚊生态的气候条件。针对北纬60°以南加拿大的每个网格单元，在每个时间段以及两种排放情景下计算R和SIG，并将它们结合起来生成总体风险类别，通过绘制地图来确定适合传播的区域以及传播持续时间。
研究结果
在近期气候条件下，加拿大基孔肯雅病毒本土传播的风险非常低，整个加拿大都被归类为不适合或相当不适合传播。不列颠哥伦比亚省南部沿海的小部分地区在短期和长期预计气候下逐渐变得适合；潜在传播的持续时间限于一年中的1 - 2个月。
解读
尽管目前加拿大基孔肯雅病毒本土传播的风险非常低，但鉴于我们对该物种在加拿大当前分布情况的不确定性，对在确定为潜在适合传播的地区进行埃及伊蚊的常规监测，可能会进一步支持我们的研究。https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669
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