BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a growing global health challenge, particularly among individuals aged 55 years and above, placing significant pressure on healthcare systems.

OBJECTIVES

This study aims to assess long-term trends in T2DM burden and its risk factors in this demographic from 1990 to 2021.

DESIGN

We conducted a retrospective analysis of T2DM based on the latest 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database.

METHODS

Utilizing data from the 2021 GBD Study, we analyzed T2DM incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) among individuals aged ⩾55 years, stratified by sex and age group. An autoregressive integrated moving average model was applied to forecast trends for 2022-2036.

RESULTS

In 2021, there were 9,179,347 (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 7,905,452-10,626,325) T2DM cases among those aged 55 years and above. From 1990 to 2021, global incidence increased from 409.06 (95% UI, 349.86-477.48) to 617.73 (95% UI, 532.00-715.10) per 100,000 population; diabetes-related mortality rose from 81.55 (95% UI, 76.57-85.44) to 96.19 (95% UI, 88.62-102.11) per 100,000, and DALYs climbed from 2562.71 (95% UI, 2293.81-2926.77) to 3552.41 (95% UI, 3041.94-4200.97) per 100,000. The highest mortality increase was in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions, while high SDI regions saw declines. Eastern Europe reported the highest incidence rate among 21 regions, at 1218.43 per 100,000 (95% UI, 1083.02-1370.82). Environmental, occupational, and behavioral risks were major contributors to diabetes-related mortality in this age group. Projections estimate T2DM cases will rise from 9.3 million in 2022 to 12.3 million by 2036.

CONCLUSION

The global burden of diabetes in adults aged ⩾55 years has risen substantially from 1990 to 2021. As the population continues to age, urgent action is needed to address this growing disease burden.