1990 年至 2019 年由于低身体活动导致的 2 型糖尿病的时空变化趋势及 2050 年的预测患病率：2019 年全球疾病负担研究。

Spatiotemporal trends of Type 2 diabetes due to low physical activity from 1990 to 2019 and forecasted prevalence in 2050: A Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

机构信息

Department of Endocrinology, Sun Yat-Sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, 107 Yanjiang West Road, Guangzhou 510120, China; Guangdong Clinical Research Center for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou Key Laboratory for Metabolic Diseases, Guangzhou 510120, China; The Third School of Clinical Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China; Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism, Fengxian Central Hospital Affiliated to Southern Medical University, Shanghai, China.

出版信息

J Nutr Health Aging. 2024 Nov;28(11):100402. doi: 10.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402. Epub 2024 Oct 29.

DOI:10.1016/j.jnha.2024.100402

PMID:39471776

Abstract

BACKGROUND

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) poses a major global health burden, yet epidemiological research on low physical activity's (LPA) impact is limited. This study examines LPA's global effect on T2DM.

METHODS

Analyzing Global Burden of Disease Database (GBD) 2019, we explored LPA-attributable T2DM deaths and Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2019, stratified by year, gender, country, and SDI regions. Estimated Annual Percentage Change (EAPC) assessed trends, and Bayesian models predicted future patterns.

RESULTS

In 2019, LPA accounted for a substantial 8.5% of T2DM deaths and 6.9% of DALYs, representing a noticeable rise since 1990. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and disability-adjusted life years rates (ASDR) increased globally, particularly in low Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) regions. High and high-middle SDI regions saw a decrease in ASMR, while all regions generally saw an upward trend in ASDR. Projections for 2050 suggest a declining ASMR but an increasing ASDR, indicating a continuing burden of T2DM despite potential mortality reductions.

CONCLUSION

LPA significantly impacts T2DM, particularly in low SDI regions. Promotion of physical activity is crucial to reduce this burden, particularly in regions where the disease's impact is most severe.

摘要

背景

2 型糖尿病（T2DM）对全球健康造成了重大负担，但关于体力活动不足（LPA）影响的流行病学研究有限。本研究旨在探讨 LPA 对 T2DM 的全球影响。

方法

通过分析全球疾病负担数据库（GBD）2019 年的数据，我们研究了 1990 年至 2019 年期间 LPA 导致的 T2DM 死亡人数和伤残调整生命年（DALYs），并按年份、性别、国家和社会发展指数（SDI）区域进行了分层。采用估计年度百分比变化（EAPC）评估趋势，并用贝叶斯模型预测未来模式。

结果

2019 年，LPA 导致了 8.5%的 T2DM 死亡和 6.9%的 DALYs，这一比例自 1990 年以来显著上升。全球年龄标准化死亡率（ASMR）和残疾调整生命年率（ASDR）均呈上升趋势，特别是在低 SDI 地区。高和高中等 SDI 地区的 ASMR 有所下降，而所有地区的 ASDR 普遍呈上升趋势。预计到 2050 年，ASMR 将下降，但 ASDR 将上升，这表明尽管潜在的死亡率有所降低，但 T2DM 的负担仍在继续。