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在不同需求模式和运力限制下对公共交通系统中传染病传播进行建模。

Modelling the spread of infectious diseases in public transport systems under varying demand patterns and capacity constraints.

作者信息

Hajdu László, Pavlović Jovan, Krész Miklós, Bóta András

机构信息

InnoRenew CoE, UP IAM and UP FAMNIT, University of Primorska, Titov trg 4, 6000, Koper, Slovenia.

FAMNIT, University of Primorska, Glagoljaška 8, 6000, Koper, Slovenia.

出版信息

Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 15;15(1):29958. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15237-9.

DOI:10.1038/s41598-025-15237-9
PMID:40817342
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12356971/
Abstract

Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact across public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity have been shown to accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many public transportation companies took measures to slow down and minimize the spread of the disease. One of these measures was introducing spacing and capacity constraints on public transit vehicles. Our objective is to explore the effects of changes in demand and transportation measures from an epidemiological point of view, offering alternative measures to public transportation companies to keep the system operational while minimizing the epidemiological risk as much as possible. Our findings show that restricting vehicle capacity can significantly reduce the spread of infections, while demand-related measures have an even stronger effect. Combining these approaches offers the best solutions for balancing public health and operability.

摘要

了解公共交通系统中乘客交互的动态及其流行病学影响,对于服务效率和公众健康都至关重要。高乘客密度和近距离身体接触已被证明会加速传染病的传播。在新冠疫情期间,许多公共交通公司采取措施减缓并尽量减少疾病传播。其中一项措施是对公共交通工具实行间距和运力限制。我们的目标是从流行病学角度探讨需求变化和交通措施的影响,为公共交通公司提供替代措施,以便在尽可能降低流行病学风险的同时保持系统运行。我们的研究结果表明,限制车辆运力可显著减少感染传播,而与需求相关的措施效果更强。结合这些方法可为平衡公共卫生和可操作性提供最佳解决方案。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/dafcd3fd2713/41598_2025_15237_Fig8_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/3532f58e305b/41598_2025_15237_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/11e0d3d4833b/41598_2025_15237_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/dafcd3fd2713/41598_2025_15237_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/2f8394222ed2/41598_2025_15237_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/07cb3ae362d0/41598_2025_15237_Figa_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/ae95876c5a9d/41598_2025_15237_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/81570dc900f2/41598_2025_15237_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/4da960aebe0d/41598_2025_15237_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/eba874439925/41598_2025_15237_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/3532f58e305b/41598_2025_15237_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/11e0d3d4833b/41598_2025_15237_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/6d52/12356971/dafcd3fd2713/41598_2025_15237_Fig8_HTML.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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