Zhang Ye, Li Mimi, Zhang Xiaoning, Qin Zihai, Wang Ping, Liu Hailong
College of Ecology and Environment, Central South University of Forestry and Technology, Changsha, 410007, China.
Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Conservation and Utilization of Plant Resources, Institute of Botany, Jiangsu Province and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210014, China.
Sci Rep. 2025 Jul 21;15(1):26422. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-09800-7.
Malania oleifera is a nationally Category II protected wild plant in China and a Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List, specifically distributed in the karst forest, playing a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological balance in karst fragile ecosystems. In this study, the potential suitable habitats for M. oleifera were simulated by the MaxEnt model using 126 distribution records and 19 environment variables. The key environmental variables influencing its distribution were identified: topsoil USDA texture classification (t_usda_tex), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), isothermality (Bio03), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and temperature annual range (Bio07), which are clay soil, 606-882 mm, 33.1-43.5, 40.7-67.2 mm, 76.9-86.7%, and 20.6-23.1 °C, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats for M. oleifera is expected to decrease, with a more significant reduction under the SSP585 scenario compared to the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. Compared to the current centroid of the suitable habitat, the future centroid is projected to shift southeastward. This study identifies stable habitats of M. oleifera in the Guangxi-Yunnan-Guizhou border region, recommending prioritized in situ conservation and breeding base development. Environmentally sensitive zones require continuous monitoring and adaptive protection strategies. Climate-adaptive cultivation trials are proposed for expansion areas like Guangdong. These findings offer scientific and practical guidance for sustainable management of this vulnerable species under climate change.
蒜头果是中国国家二级保护野生植物，也是世界自然保护联盟红色名录中的易危物种，主要分布于喀斯特森林，对维持喀斯特脆弱生态系统的生物多样性和生态平衡起着关键作用。在本研究中，利用126条分布记录和19个环境变量，通过最大熵模型模拟了蒜头果的潜在适宜生境。确定了影响其分布的关键环境变量：表土美国农业部质地分类（t_usda_tex）、最暖季度降水量（Bio18）、等温性（Bio03）、最干季度降水量（Bio17）、降水季节性（Bio15）和年温度范围（Bio07），分别为黏土、606 - 882毫米、33.1 - 43.5、40.7 - 67.2毫米、76.9 - 86.7%和20.6 - 23.1摄氏度。在未来气候情景下，蒜头果适宜生境总面积预计将减少，与SSP126和SSP245情景相比，SSP585情景下的减少更为显著。与当前适宜生境的质心相比，未来质心预计将向东南方向移动。本研究确定了桂滇黔边境地区蒜头果的稳定生境，建议优先进行原地保护和繁育基地建设。对环境敏感区域需要持续监测并采取适应性保护策略。建议在广东等扩展区域开展气候适应性栽培试验。这些研究结果为气候变化下该濒危物种的可持续管理提供了科学和实践指导。
