Prediction of potential suitable habitats of Malania oleifera under future climate scenarios based on the MaxEnt model.

Malania oleifera is a nationally Category II protected wild plant in China and a Vulnerable species on the IUCN Red List, specifically distributed in the karst forest, playing a crucial role in maintaining biodiversity and ecological balance in karst fragile ecosystems. In this study, the potential suitable habitats for M. oleifera were simulated by the MaxEnt model using 126 distribution records and 19 environment variables. The key environmental variables influencing its distribution were identified: topsoil USDA texture classification (t_usda_tex), precipitation of warmest quarter (Bio18), isothermality (Bio03), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and temperature annual range (Bio07), which are clay soil, 606-882 mm, 33.1-43.5, 40.7-67.2 mm, 76.9-86.7%, and 20.6-23.1 °C, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the total area of suitable habitats for M. oleifera is expected to decrease, with a more significant reduction under the SSP585 scenario compared to the SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios. Compared to the current centroid of the suitable habitat, the future centroid is projected to shift southeastward. This study identifies stable habitats of M. oleifera in the Guangxi-Yunnan-Guizhou border region, recommending prioritized in situ conservation and breeding base development. Environmentally sensitive zones require continuous monitoring and adaptive protection strategies. Climate-adaptive cultivation trials are proposed for expansion areas like Guangdong. These findings offer scientific and practical guidance for sustainable management of this vulnerable species under climate change.