Ning Lehua, Yu Shulin, Wang Pan, Li Renqiang, Zhu Di, Zhang Jingyong
Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modelling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Glob Chang Biol. 2025 Aug;31(8):e70442. doi: 10.1111/gcb.70442.
Climate change affects biodiversity through multidimensional impacts, influencing not only shifts in habitat range but also changes in habitat quality. In this context, habitat area and bioclimatic velocity have become critical metrics for assessing species-specific vulnerabilities to climate change. Here, we assessed the extinction risk and exposure risk of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) based on habitat area and bioclimatic velocity, respectively, and examined the differences between these two risks to inform climate-adaptive conservation strategies. Our findings indicate that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, degraded giant panda habitats are projected to total 13846.1 km, with the Qinling (QL), Liangshan (LS), and Daxiangling (DXL) populations experiencing substantial habitat loss of 3790.4, 2722.8, and 1135.4 km, respectively. Bioclimatic velocities across different populations range from -0.468 to 0.309 km year, with higher velocities observed in southeastern Minshan (MS) and Qionglaishan (QLS) and Liangshan (LS) regions, suggesting potential declines in habitat suitability and substantial challenges to population survival. Our results also reveal that while most populations exhibit consistent risk patterns when assessed by both habitat area and bioclimatic velocity, notable discrepancies remain. Populations with high extinction risk generally face high exposure risk; however, some populations with low extinction risk may encounter substantial exposure risk (e.g., DXL_A and MS_K). These findings highlight the limitations of relying on single-dimensional assessments of species' vulnerability to climate change, as evidenced by the variability in risk assessment outcomes. Therefore, integrating changes in both habitat area and bioclimatic velocity provides a more comprehensive understanding of species' vulnerability, reveals local adaptation mechanisms, and offers a robust scientific basis for formulating targeted climate-resilient conservation strategies.
气候变化通过多方面影响作用于生物多样性，不仅影响栖息地范围的变化，还影响栖息地质量的改变。在此背景下，栖息地面积和生物气候速度已成为评估物种对气候变化的特定脆弱性的关键指标。在此，我们分别基于栖息地面积和生物气候速度评估了大熊猫（Ailuropoda melanoleuca）的灭绝风险和暴露风险，并研究了这两种风险之间的差异，以为气候适应性保护策略提供参考。我们的研究结果表明，在SSP2 - 4.5情景下，预计大熊猫栖息地退化总面积将达到13846.1平方千米，秦岭（QL）、凉山（LS）和大相岭（DXL）种群的栖息地将分别大幅丧失3790.4平方千米、2722.8平方千米和1135.4平方千米。不同种群的生物气候速度在-0.468至0.309千米/年之间，在岷山（MS）东南部、邛崃山（QLS）和凉山（LS）地区观察到较高的速度，这表明栖息地适宜性可能下降，种群生存面临重大挑战。我们的结果还表明，虽然大多数种群在通过栖息地面积和生物气候速度评估时呈现出一致的风险模式，但仍存在显著差异。灭绝风险高的种群通常面临高暴露风险；然而，一些灭绝风险低的种群可能会面临重大暴露风险（例如，DXL_A和MS_K）。这些发现凸显了仅依靠单维度评估物种对气候变化脆弱性的局限性，风险评估结果的变异性证明了这一点。因此，综合考虑栖息地面积和生物气候速度的变化，可以更全面地了解物种的脆弱性，揭示局部适应机制，并为制定有针对性的气候适应保护策略提供有力的科学依据。
