James Meenu Mariya, Mohanty Bhabani Shankar, Kodali Naveen Kumar, Balabaskaran Nina Praveen, Gopalan Natarajan, Behera Sujit Kumar
Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Central University of Tamil Nadu, Thiruvarur, 610005, India.
Department of Statistics and Applied Mathematics, Central University of Tamil Nadu, Thiruvarur, 610005, India.
Ecohealth. 2025 Aug 19. doi: 10.1007/s10393-025-01745-7.
Dengue is a neglected tropical disease with a huge disease burden globally. Even though previous studies have focused on socio-demographic and climatic predictors of dengue, the independent effects of age, period, and birth cohort have not been studied. Here, using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, a joinpoint regression analysis and an age-period-cohort model were applied to identify temporal trends in age-standardized incidence and mortality rates and to estimate the longitudinal age curves, the rate ratios of period and cohort effects, the net drift, and the local drift values of dengue incidence and mortality in India, respectively. Dengue incidence and mortality trends in India showed a significant increase from 1990 to 2021. The average annual percent change (AAPC) of age-standardized incidence (AAPC: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.34, 1.44) and mortality (AAPC: 1.65; 95% CI: 1.23, 2.08) increased significantly over the study period. The Error, Trend, and Seasonality model forecasts a rise in cases from 28.86 million in 2020 to 32.06 million, while the ARIMA model projects an increase from 28.95 million to 33.43 million by 2031. The age-standardized rates of incidence, mortality, age, period, and cohort effects of dengue incidence and mortality in India show an increasing trend in all age groups from 1990 to 2021 in both sexes. The findings underscore the need for enhanced dengue prevention and control strategies in India.
登革热是一种被忽视的热带疾病，在全球造成巨大的疾病负担。尽管先前的研究集中在登革热的社会人口统计学和气候预测因素上，但年龄、时期和出生队列的独立影响尚未得到研究。在此，利用2021年全球疾病负担研究的数据，应用连接点回归分析和年龄-时期-队列模型，分别确定印度登革热年龄标准化发病率和死亡率的时间趋势，估计纵向年龄曲线、时期和队列效应的率比、净漂移以及登革热发病率和死亡率的局部漂移值。印度登革热发病率和死亡率趋势显示，1990年至2021年显著上升。在研究期间，年龄标准化发病率（平均年度百分比变化[AAPC]：1.39；95%置信区间：1.34，1.44）和死亡率（AAPC：1.65；95%置信区间：1.23，2.08）的平均年度百分比变化显著增加。误差、趋势和季节性模型预测病例数将从2020年的2886万例增至3206万例，而自回归积分滑动平均模型预测到2031年将从2895万例增至3343万例。1990年至2021年，印度登革热发病率、死亡率、年龄、时期和队列效应的年龄标准化率在所有年龄组中均呈上升趋势，男女皆是如此。研究结果强调了印度加强登革热预防和控制策略的必要性。
