Moon Kihoon, Kim Jaehong, Yoo Seohyun, Cho Jaehyuk
Department of Software Engineering, Jeonbuk National University, Jeonju-si, Jeollabuk-do, Republic of Korea.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 20;15(1):30636. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-13491-5.
Personalized blood glucose (BG) prediction in Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) is challenged by significant inter-patient heterogeneity. To address this, we propose BiT-MAML, a hybrid model combining a Bidirectional LSTM-Transformer with Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning. We evaluated our model using a rigorous Leave-One-Patient-Out Cross-Validation (LOPO-CV) on the OhioT1DM dataset, ensuring a fair comparison against re-implemented LSTM and Edge-LSTM baselines. The results show our model achieved a mean RMSE of 24.89 mg/dL for the 30 min prediction horizon, marking a substantial improvement of 19.3% over the standard LSTM and 14.2% over the Edge-LSTM. Notably, our model also achieved the lowest standard deviation (±4.60 mg/dL), indicating more consistent and generalizable performance across the patient cohort. A key finding of our study is the confirmation of significant performance variability across individuals, a known clinical challenge. This was evident as our model's 30 min RMSE ranged from an excellent 19.64 mg/dL to a more challenging 30.57 mg/dL, reflecting the inherent difficulty of personalizing predictions rather than model instability. From a clinical safety perspective, Clarke Error Grid Analysis confirmed the model's robustness, with over 92% of predictions falling within the clinically acceptable Zones A and B. This study concludes that the development of effective personalized BG prediction requires not only advanced model architectures but also robust evaluation methods that transparently report the full spectrum of performance, providing a realistic pathway toward reliable clinical tools.
1型糖尿病(T1D)患者之间存在显著的异质性,这给个性化血糖(BG)预测带来了挑战。为了解决这一问题,我们提出了BiT-MAML,这是一种将双向长短期记忆网络-Transformer与模型无关元学习相结合的混合模型。我们在OhioT1DM数据集上使用严格的留一患者交叉验证(LOPO-CV)对我们的模型进行了评估,以确保与重新实现的长短期记忆网络(LSTM)和边缘长短期记忆网络(Edge-LSTM)基线进行公平比较。结果表明,我们的模型在30分钟预测期内的平均均方根误差(RMSE)为24.89mg/dL,比标准LSTM显著提高了19.3%,比Edge-LSTM提高了14.2%。值得注意的是,我们的模型还实现了最低的标准差(±4.60mg/dL),表明在整个患者队列中具有更一致和可推广的性能。我们研究的一个关键发现是确认了个体之间存在显著的性能差异,这是一个已知的临床挑战。这一点很明显,因为我们模型的30分钟RMSE范围从出色的19.64mg/dL到更具挑战性的30.57mg/dL,反映了个性化预测的固有困难,而不是模型的不稳定性。从临床安全性的角度来看,克拉克误差网格分析证实了该模型的稳健性,超过92%的预测落在临床可接受的A区和B区。这项研究得出结论,有效的个性化BG预测的发展不仅需要先进的模型架构,还需要强大的评估方法,以透明地报告完整的性能范围,为可靠的临床工具提供一条现实的途径。