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艾滋病病毒项目干预措施的混合模拟模型:从传播行为到宏观经济影响

A hybrid simulation model of HIV program interventions: from transmission behavior to macroeconomic impacts.

作者信息

Crown William, Britton Erin, Razavi Moaven, Luan Yiqun, Veerunaidu Senthil, Kates Jennifer, Gaumer Gary, Jordan Monica, Hurley Clare L, Nandakumar Allyala K

机构信息

Center for Innovation in Social Work and Health, School of Social Work, Crosstown Center, 3rd Floor 801 Massachusetts Avenue, Boston University, Boston, MA 02118, USA.

Department of Health Policy, School of Population Health, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.

出版信息

Ther Adv Drug Saf. 2025 Aug 20;16:20420986251367510. doi: 10.1177/20420986251367510. eCollection 2025.


DOI:10.1177/20420986251367510
PMID:40851631
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12368329/
Abstract

BACKGROUND: Considerable progress has been made in the estimation of drug safety treatment effects-particularly with observational medical claims and electronic medical record data. The use of the Target Trial framework, along with developments in statistical methodology such as doubly robust and G-estimation methods, has improved the ability to draw reliable causal inferences about drug and vaccine safety from observational data. However, such models rarely relate drug safety outcomes to other domains such as economic impacts. As shown by the COVID-19 pandemic, this is a significant limitation with potentially serious and long-term consequences. OBJECTIVE: The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that the availability of simulation tools would enable policy-makers to assess drug safety and effectiveness outcomes associated with alternative policies, as well as examine these effects in the context of other domains, such as economic outcomes. DESIGN: We develop an agent-based simulation model (ABM) of a peer navigator program to support engagement in HIV therapy in Tanzania. Results from the ABM are weighted to reflect the Tanzanian population and fed into the SPECTRUM model. This generates detailed demographic forecasts that are translated into macroeconomic impacts using labor force participation rates from the International Labor Organization, along with an econometric model of gross domestic product. RESULTS: The ABM simulation estimated that the peer navigation program increased ART participation for men and women by about 12%-15% with no strong trend over time. The impact on VLS, however, was cumulative and significant for both men and women. By year 3, VLS was improved by 33.9 percentage points for women and 32.6 percentage points for men. However, the overall impact of these estimates on mortality was modest-ranging from less than 500 lives per year at the start of the forecast period to about 2500 lives per year in 2030. Consequently, the associated macroeconomic impacts were also small. The relatively modest impacts were due to the limited opportunity for HIV control in Tanzania, which had already met its 95/95/95 goals. CONCLUSION: Although the simulated macroeconomic effects of the peer navigator program in Tanzania were modest, the paper demonstrates the feasibility of linking behavioral ABM simulations of program impacts to subsequent demographic effects and, finally, macroeconomic performance. Moreover, given the clinical response in ART and VLS in the exposed population in Tanzania, it is likely that the same peer navigator intervention conducted in another country with a larger at-risk HIV population would be much larger.

摘要

背景:在药物安全性治疗效果评估方面已取得了显著进展,尤其是利用观察性医疗索赔和电子病历数据。目标试验框架的使用,以及双重稳健和G估计方法等统计方法的发展,提高了从观察性数据中得出关于药物和疫苗安全性可靠因果推断的能力。然而,此类模型很少将药物安全结果与经济影响等其他领域联系起来。正如新冠疫情所表明的,这是一个重大局限,可能会产生严重且长期的后果。 目的:本文的目标是证明模拟工具的可用性将使政策制定者能够评估与替代政策相关的药物安全性和有效性结果,并在经济结果等其他领域的背景下审视这些影响。 设计:我们开发了一个基于主体的模拟模型(ABM),用于模拟坦桑尼亚的同伴导航计划以支持HIV治疗参与情况。ABM的结果经过加权以反映坦桑尼亚人口情况,并输入到SPECTRUM模型中。这生成了详细的人口预测,并利用国际劳工组织的劳动力参与率以及国内生产总值计量模型转化为宏观经济影响。 结果:ABM模拟估计,同伴导航计划使男性和女性的抗逆转录病毒治疗参与率提高了约12%-15%,且没有随时间变化的明显趋势。然而,对病毒载量抑制(VLS)的影响对男性和女性都是累积且显著的。到第3年,女性的VLS提高了33.9个百分点,男性提高了32.6个百分点。然而,这些估计对死亡率的总体影响较小,从预测期开始时每年不到500人死亡到2030年约每年2500人死亡。因此,相关的宏观经济影响也较小。影响相对较小是由于坦桑尼亚控制HIV的机会有限,该国已经实现了95/95/95目标。 结论:尽管坦桑尼亚同伴导航计划的模拟宏观经济影响较小,但本文证明了将项目影响的行为ABM模拟与后续人口影响以及最终宏观经济表现联系起来的可行性。此外,鉴于坦桑尼亚暴露人群在抗逆转录病毒治疗和VLS方面的临床反应,在另一个有更多HIV高危人群的国家进行同样的同伴导航干预可能会产生更大的影响。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/3e477d88c9f6/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/1173c6377a7b/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/9dacc9d7e21c/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/89d71d3b5dc1/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/36f0f6684a28/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/1a7b44fb8f6b/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/3e477d88c9f6/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/1173c6377a7b/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/9dacc9d7e21c/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/89d71d3b5dc1/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/36f0f6684a28/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/1a7b44fb8f6b/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/fb38/12368329/3e477d88c9f6/10.1177_20420986251367510-fig6.jpg

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