The impact of cropland displacement on crop production greenhouse gas emissions: Evidence from China.

As a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, researches focusing on greenhouse gas emissions from crop production have garnered substantial attention. The spatial variability in emission intensity means that changes in cropland location (cropland displacement) can significantly impact greenhouse gas emissions. However, there remains a notable lack of research in this critical area. Therefore, this study employed the LMDI model and multi-source data to estimate the contribution of cropland displacement to greenhouse gas emissions, comparing this driver with two others: the net change in cropland area and the greenhouse gas emissions intensity of unchanged cropland. Our results suggest that between 2000 and 2020, the cropland centroid in China shifted approximately 61.66 km to the northwest, and increased 36.49 Mton crop production greenhouse gas emissions. Cropland displacement accounted for about 19.8 % of this increase. Additionally, the increased emission intensity of unchanged cropland contributed to a 117.3 % rise in emissions, whereas cropland loss resulted in a 37.1 % decrease. Given the global trend of cropland displacement, the insights presented in this paper have far-reaching implications. We recommend that future cropland management and protection policies incorporate the greenhouse gas emission impacts of cropland displacement to effectively balance food security with environmental sustainability.