Aryasit Orapan, Bilheem Surichai, Aiempanakit Kumpol, Eksomtramage Thanapatsorn, Sriplung Hutcha
Department of Ophthalmology, Faculty of Medicine, Prince of Songkla University, Hat Yai, Songkhla, Thailand.
Sirindhorn College of Public Health, Yala, Thailand.
Sci Rep. 2025 Aug 27;15(1):31636. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-15653-x.
Skin cancer incidence in the head, neck, and face, which are areas with high ultraviolet radiation exposure, remains unclear. We aimed to determine skin cancer incidence and project future trends in southern Thailand based on the Songkhla Cancer Registry (1989 and 2015). Age-standardized incidence rates for nonmelanoma skin cancers (NMSCs) were predicted to 2030 using the Joinpoint, age-period-cohort, and NordPred models. Population zones were divided based on occupation and ultraviolet radiation exposure. In total, 750 patients were diagnosed with NMSC of the head, neck, and face, including 546 and 204 cases of basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma (SCC), respectively. The age-standardized incidence rates in 1989 and 2015 were 1.00 and 2.47 per 100,000 persons/year, respectively. The projected value was 2.00 per 100,000 persons/year in 2030. NMSC rates in women who worked in cities decreased (annual percent change = - 2.3, p < 0.001). SCC rates in women working at rubber plantations decreased (annual percent change = - 4.7, p < 0.001). Overall, NMSC incidence was constant; however, reductions were observed in women working in cities and at rubber plantations. Thus, our methodology estimated NMSC incidence in women and its association with reduced ultraviolet radiation exposure.
头部、颈部和面部是紫外线辐射暴露较高的区域，其皮肤癌发病率仍不明确。我们旨在根据宋卡癌症登记处（1989年和2015年）的数据，确定泰国南部的皮肤癌发病率并预测未来趋势。使用Joinpoint、年龄-时期-队列和NordPred模型预测了非黑色素瘤皮肤癌（NMSC）到2030年的年龄标准化发病率。根据职业和紫外线辐射暴露情况划分了人口区域。共有750例患者被诊断为头颈部和面部的NMSC，其中分别有546例和204例基底细胞癌和鳞状细胞癌（SCC）。1989年和2015年的年龄标准化发病率分别为每10万人/年1.00例和2.47例。预计到2030年该值为每10万人/年2.00例。在城市工作的女性中NMSC发病率下降（年变化百分比=-2.3，p<0.001）。在橡胶种植园工作的女性中SCC发病率下降（年变化百分比=-4.7，p<0.001）。总体而言，NMSC发病率保持稳定；然而，在城市和橡胶种植园工作的女性中观察到发病率有所下降。因此，我们的方法估计了女性NMSC发病率及其与紫外线辐射暴露减少的关联。
