Wu Hong-Dar Isaac, Chao Day-Yu
Department of Applied Mathematics and Graduate Institute of Statistics, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, 402, Taiwan.
Graduate Institute of Microbiology and Public Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, National Chung Hsing University, Taichung, 402, Taiwan.
Sci Rep. 2025 Sep 2;15(1):32284. doi: 10.1038/s41598-025-17678-8.
Accumulated evidence supports the critical role of migratory wild birds in highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) spread and evolution. An effective surveillance strategy to study HPAIV dispersal in wild birds and identify critical interfaces between wild birds and poultry on the landscape for potential interspecies transmission and virus evolution will be essential. This study integrates conditional likelihood with epidemiological research designs to investigate the risk of poultry farm outbreaks due to the introduction of HPAIV by migratory birds from the Taiwan citizen scientist dataset. The prediction accuracy of poultry farm outbreaks was evaluated by employing the global risk score (GRS) of multiple species of wild birds under different significance level. Although 11 wild bird species demonstrated significant associations (P < 0.05) with HPAIV poultry farm outbreaks, the bird species with P < 0.1 yielded the optimal area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Without prior adjustment of environmental factors, the posterior adjusted likelihood results suggested that the agricultural wetlands yield notably strong positive odds ratio estimates for all species. The GRS under adjustment of environmental factors, a linear combination of the 27 migratory species and 27 resident species, was 0.320, yielding a sensitivity of 0.81 and specificity of 0.77. The framework of GRS developed in this study can be applied to different countries for enhanced surveillance of HPAIV.
越来越多的证据支持了候鸟在高致病性禽流感病毒（HPAIV）传播和进化中所起的关键作用。制定一项有效的监测策略，以研究HPAIV在野生鸟类中的传播情况，并确定野生鸟类与家禽在景观上的关键接触点，对于潜在的种间传播和病毒进化至关重要。本研究将条件似然法与流行病学研究设计相结合，利用台湾公民科学家数据集来调查候鸟引入HPAIV导致家禽养殖场爆发疫情的风险。通过采用不同显著性水平下多种野生鸟类的全球风险评分（GRS）来评估家禽养殖场疫情爆发的预测准确性。尽管有11种野生鸟类与HPAIV家禽养殖场疫情爆发呈现出显著关联（P < 0.05），但P < 0.1的鸟类物种在受试者工作特征曲线下产生了最佳面积。在未事先调整环境因素的情况下，后验调整似然结果表明，农业湿地对所有物种均产生了显著较强的正优势比估计值。在调整环境因素后，由27种候鸟和27种留鸟组成的线性组合的GRS为0.320，灵敏度为0.81，特异性为0.77。本研究中开发的GRS框架可应用于不同国家，以加强对HPAIV的监测。
