Ecological factors associated with persistent circulation of multiple highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses among poultry farms in Taiwan during 2015-17.

Emergence and intercontinental spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) H5Nx virus clade 2.3.4.4 has resulted in substantial economic losses to the poultry industry in Asia, Europe, and North America. The long-distance migratory birds have been suggested to play a major role in the global spread of avian influenza viruses during this wave of panzootic outbreaks since 2013. Poultry farm epidemics caused by multiple introduction of different HPAI novel subtypes of clade 2.3.4.4 viruses also occurred in Taiwan between 2015 and 2017. The mandatory and active surveillance detected H5N3 and H5N6 circulation in 2015 and 2017, respectively, while H5N2 and H5N8 were persistently identified in poultry farms since their first arrival in 2015. This study intended to assess the importance of various ecological factors contributed to the persistence of HPAI during three consecutive years. We used satellite technology to identify the location of waterfowl flocks. Four risk factors consistently showed strong association with the spatial clustering of H5N2 and H5N8 circulations during 2015 and 2017, including high poultry farm density (aOR:17.46, 95%CI: 5.91-74.86 and 8.23, 95% CI: 2.12-54.86 in 2015 and 2017, respectively), poultry heterogeneity index (aOR of 12.28, 95%CI: 5.02-31.14 and 2.79, 95%CI: 1.00-7.69, in 2015 and 2017, respectively), non-registered waterfowl flock density (aOR: 6.8, 95%CI: 3.41-14.46 and 9.17, 95%CI: 3.73-26.20, in 2015 and 2017, respectively) and higher percentage of cropping land coverage (aOR of 1.36, 95%CI: 1.10-1.69 and 1.04, 95%CI: 1.02-1.07, in 2015 and 2017, respectively). Our study highlights the application of remote sensing and clustering analysis for the identification and characterization of environmental factors in facilitating and contributing to the persistent circulation of certain subtypes of H5Nx in poultry farms in Taiwan.