Kurmana Manoj Kumar, Kumhar Maniram, Tiwari Ravindra Kumar, Tak Harsh, Gaur Ravi
Internal Medicine, Jawaharlal Nehru Medical College, Ajmer, IND.
Cureus. 2025 Sep 15;17(9):e92360. doi: 10.7759/cureus.92360. eCollection 2025 Sep.
Background A foremost cause of mortality in intensive care units is sepsis, especially in resource-limited nations such as India, where delays in patient presentations and limited diagnostic facilities pose common challenges. While conventional severity scores such as Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) are helpful, the multiple assessments required and labor-intensive calculations create an impractical situation for some clinicians. Thus, an urgent need arises for reliable biomarkers that could be measured at admission for faster and better prognosis. In this context, this study aims to evaluate the combined prognostic potential of three biomarkers, each reflecting a key facet in sepsis pathophysiology: coagulation (prothrombin time-international normalized ratio (PT-INR)), inflammation (interleukin-6 (IL-6)), and immunometabolism (high-density lipoprotein (HDL)). Methodology This prospective, observational study was conducted from July 2023 to March 2025 among 152 adult patients with severe sepsis admitted to Jawaharlal Nehru Hospital in Ajmer, India. Admission levels of PT-INR, IL-6, and HDL cholesterol were measured. Sepsis was diagnosed based on the Sepsis-3 criteria (SOFA score increase of ≥2 points). The prognostic utility of the biomarkers was assessed by correlating their admission levels with clinical severity scores (SOFA and APACHE II) and in-hospital mortality. Statistical analysis included non-parametric tests, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and binary logistic regression. Results Of the 152 patients enrolled, the in-hospital mortality rate was 38.8%. Non-survivors had significantly higher admission levels of IL-6 (104.87 ± 28.45 pg/mL) and PT-INR (1.97 ± 0.50) and significantly lower levels of HDL (34.89 ± 8.85 mg/dL) compared to survivors. ROC curve analysis demonstrated that IL-6 was an exceptionally strong predictor of mortality, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.995, and 100% sensitivity and specificity at a cutoff of 75 pg/mL. PT-INR showed a moderate predictive ability (AUC = 0.606), while HDL was a weaker predictor (AUC = 0.405). A combined logistic regression model incorporating all three biomarkers showed superior prognostic accuracy with an AUC of 0.94. Conclusions The combined use of admission-day biomarkers reflecting inflammation (IL-6), coagulation (PT-INR), and immunometabolism (HDL) provides a powerful and synergistic tool for early risk stratification in severe sepsis. While each marker offers unique prognostic insights, the multi-marker approach demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to individual markers alone. Specifically, IL-6 emerged as a remarkably potent and accurate predictor of mortality in this high-acuity patient cohort. This multi-marker strategy is particularly valuable for improving early prognostication and guiding treatment decisions in resource-limited settings.
背景
重症监护病房中主要的死亡原因是脓毒症,尤其是在印度等资源有限的国家,患者就诊延迟和诊断设施有限是常见的挑战。虽然传统的严重程度评分,如序贯器官衰竭评估(SOFA)和急性生理与慢性健康状况评估II(APACHE II)很有帮助,但所需的多项评估和耗费人力的计算对一些临床医生来说是不切实际的情况。因此,迫切需要可靠的生物标志物,以便在入院时进行检测,从而实现更快、更好的预后。在此背景下,本研究旨在评估三种生物标志物的联合预后潜力,每种生物标志物都反映了脓毒症病理生理学的一个关键方面:凝血(凝血酶原时间 - 国际标准化比值(PT - INR))、炎症(白细胞介素 - 6(IL - 6))和免疫代谢(高密度脂蛋白(HDL))。
方法
这项前瞻性观察性研究于2023年7月至2025年3月在印度阿杰默尔的贾瓦哈拉尔·尼赫鲁医院收治的152例严重脓毒症成年患者中进行。测量了PT - INR、IL - 6和HDL胆固醇的入院水平。根据脓毒症 - 3标准(SOFA评分增加≥2分)诊断脓毒症。通过将生物标志物的入院水平与临床严重程度评分(SOFA和APACHE II)及住院死亡率相关联,评估生物标志物的预后效用。统计分析包括非参数检验、受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析和二元逻辑回归。
结果
在纳入的152例患者中,住院死亡率为38.8%。与幸存者相比,非幸存者的IL - 6入院水平(104.87±28.45 pg/mL)和PT - INR(1.97±0.50)显著更高,而HDL水平(34.89±8.85 mg/dL)显著更低。ROC曲线分析表明,IL - 6是死亡率的极强预测指标,曲线下面积(AUC)为0.995,在截断值为75 pg/mL时敏感性和特异性均为100%。PT - INR显示出中等预测能力(AUC = 0.606),而HDL是较弱的预测指标(AUC = 0.405)。包含所有三种生物标志物的联合逻辑回归模型显示出更高的预后准确性,AUC为0.94。
结论
反映炎症(IL - 6)、凝血(PT - INR)和免疫代谢(HDL)的入院当天生物标志物的联合使用为严重脓毒症的早期风险分层提供了一个强大且协同的工具。虽然每个标志物都提供了独特的预后见解,但多标志物方法显示出比单独使用单个标志物更高的预测准确性。具体而言,在这个高 acuity 患者队列中,IL - 6成为死亡率的一个非常强大且准确的预测指标。这种多标志物策略对于在资源有限的环境中改善早期预后评估和指导治疗决策特别有价值。