Brinkley D, Haybrittle J L
Lancet. 1975 Jul 19;2(7925):95-7. doi: 10.1016/s0140-6736(75)90003-3.
Results are presented of a long-term follow-up of patients with breast cancer seen in the Cambridge area from 1947 to 1950. After 21 years the survival curve of the breast-cancer patients runs parallel to the expected survival curve of a similar normal population. This suggests that 18% of all the breast-cancer patients may be regarded as cured of their disease in the sense defined by Easson and Russell. An analysis of the causes of death in the study group after 20 years' follow-up shows an excess of deaths from breast cancer. The number is 16 times more than would be expected in the normal population, although the overall death-rates in the two groups are the same. This questions the concept of cure.
本文呈现了1947年至1950年间在剑桥地区就诊的乳腺癌患者的长期随访结果。21年后，乳腺癌患者的生存曲线与类似正常人群的预期生存曲线平行。这表明，按照伊森和拉塞尔所定义的意义，所有乳腺癌患者中有18%可被视为疾病已治愈。对研究组20年随访后的死亡原因分析显示，死于乳腺癌的人数过多。该数字是正常人群预期死亡人数的16倍，尽管两组的总体死亡率相同。这对治愈的概念提出了质疑。
