Maki R H, Berry S L
J Exp Psychol Learn Mem Cogn. 1984 Oct;10(4):663-79. doi: 10.1037//0278-7393.10.4.663.
Subjects' abilities to predict future multiple-choice test performance after reading sections of text were investigated in two experiments. In Experiment 1, subjects who scored above median test performance showed some accuracy in their predictions of that test performance. They gave higher mean ratings to material related to correct than to incorrect test answers. Subjects who scored below median test performance did not show this prediction accuracy. The retention interval between reading and the test was manipulated in Experiment 2. Subjects who were tested after at least a 24-hr delay showed results identical to those of Experiment 1. However, when subjects were tested immediately after reading, subjects above and below median test performance gave accurate predictions for the first immediate test. In contrast, both types of subjects gave inaccurate predictions for the second immediate test. Structural variables, such as length, serial position, and hierarchical level of the sections of text were related to subjects' predictions. These variables, in general, were not related to test performance, although the predictions were related to test performance in the conditions described above.
在两项实验中，研究了受试者在阅读文本片段后预测未来多项选择题测试表现的能力。在实验1中，测试表现高于中位数的受试者在预测该测试表现时具有一定的准确性。他们对与正确测试答案相关的材料给出的平均评分高于与错误测试答案相关的材料。测试表现低于中位数的受试者则没有显示出这种预测准确性。在实验2中，对阅读与测试之间的保留间隔进行了操控。在至少延迟24小时后进行测试的受试者显示出与实验1相同的结果。然而，当受试者在阅读后立即进行测试时，测试表现高于和低于中位数的受试者对第一次即时测试都做出了准确的预测。相比之下，两种类型的受试者对第二次即时测试都做出了不准确的预测。文本片段的结构变量，如长度、序列位置和层次水平，与受试者的预测有关。总体而言，这些变量与测试表现无关，尽管在上述条件下预测与测试表现相关。
