Caldwell G G, Kelley D, Zack M, Falk H, Heath C W
JAMA. 1983 Aug 5;250(5):620-4.
Follow-up of health status has been completed through 1979 for 3,072 (95.5%) of 3,217 nuclear test participants on military maneuvers during the 1957 nuclear test "Smoky." In these participants, 112 cases of cancer were diagnosed, compared with 117.5 cases expected. During the same follow-up period (1957 through 1979), 64 persons died of cancer, compared with an expected 64.3. Statistically significantly increased frequency of occurrence and mortality was found only for leukemia. The amount of cumulative gamma radiation exposure for 1957 ranged from 0 to 10,397 mrem as measured by individual personnel film badges. Although uncertainty remains about the exact amount of radiation exposure, the lack of a significant increase after 22 years in either the incidence of or the mortality from any other cancer and the apparent lack of a dose effect by unit lead to the consideration that the leukemia findings may be attributable either to chance, to factors other than radiation, or to some combination of risk factors possibly including radiation.
对1957年“烟雾”核试验期间参加军事演习的3217名核试验参与者中的3072人(95.5%)进行了截至1979年的健康状况随访。在这些参与者中,诊断出112例癌症,而预期为117.5例。在同一随访期(1957年至1979年)内,64人死于癌症,预期为64.3人。仅白血病的发生频率和死亡率在统计学上有显著增加。根据个人佩戴的胶片剂量计测量,1957年累积γ辐射暴露量范围为0至10397毫雷姆。尽管辐射暴露的确切剂量仍存在不确定性,但在22年后,其他任何癌症的发病率或死亡率均未显著增加,而且明显不存在单位剂量效应,这使得人们认为白血病的发现可能是由于偶然因素、辐射以外的因素,或者是可能包括辐射在内的某些风险因素的综合作用。