Vulnerability to schizophrenia. Prediction of adult schizophrenia using childhood information.

Forty years ago, Glueck and Glueck studied a group of Boston Inner city children to discover factors relating to delinquency. Detailed information was obtained on 1,000 boys aged 10 to 17 years, 500 "delinquents" and 500 "nondelinquent controls." In follow-up studies of this group, we have found that 24 have a diagnosis of adult schizophrenia. We matched these 24 with 48, who had a nonschizophrenic outcome, on the basis of IQ, ethnicity, age at interview, and original Glueck grouping (delinquent or control). The 72 childhood records were then examined on a blind basis by Independent raters looking for predetermined "indicators of vulnerability to schizophrenia." The total indicator scores were able to differentiate schizophrenic outcome from nonschizophrenic outcome at highly significant levels. A number of the individual indicators were likewise able to predict outcome. Prediction was improved when subjects with the lowest IQs (less than 85) were excluded from consideration.